Domestic economic judgment downward revision for the first time in 5 months Monthly economic report October 18 19:53
In this month's monthly economic report, the government maintained the expression of “moderately recovering” in domestic economic judgment, but revised for the first time in five months as “weakness has been prolonged mainly in exports” Did.
The monthly economic report shows the government's official economic perception, and was compiled at the relevant ministerial meeting on the 18th.
According to it, “Personal consumption” maintains the judgment that it is “recovering”, although sales of household electrical appliances and jewelry have decreased after the consumption tax rate has been raised, but the decline in automobiles will be limited. Did.
On the other hand, the company's “production” has been revised downward as “it has been weakening recently” due to a decrease in automobile parts and production equipment due to the sluggish exports against the backdrop of US-China trade friction.
In addition, the “judgment of business conditions” has been revised downward as “the cautiousness continues to increase mainly in the manufacturing industry”.
Based on these facts, although the expression “moderately recovering” was maintained in the overall economic trend judgment, it is said that “weakness has been prolonged mainly in exports” for the first time in five months since May. Fixed downward.
He also pointed out that the outlook for the economy needs to pay attention to the consumer's willingness to purchase after the consumption tax hike and the impact of disasters such as Typhoon No. 19 on the economy.
Downward revision is the third time in 8 months
It is the third time in eight months since March that economic judgment is revised downward in the monthly economic report.
In the March report, however, we added the wording that “there are some weaknesses in exports and production these days,” in addition to the simple statement that “the economy is recovering moderately” until then. Fixed downward.
This was due to the slowdown in exports and production of electronic components and other products against the backdrop of the slowdown in the Chinese economy, and the downward revision of monthly economic reports was indeed the first time in three years.
In the May report, just two months later, the judgment was lowered to the expression that exports and production continue to be weak.
And this month, the exports and production declined against the background of trade friction between the United States and China, and the decision was revised downward.
In the meantime, the overall downward revision will be made in the eight months from March, although the overall judgment that the economy is recovering moderately continues.
In addition, the “Economic Trend Index”, which leads to economic judgment mechanically from the movement of the index, is called “deterioration”, which is defined as showing that there is a high possibility of a recession in March, April, and August. Judgment was shown.
Regarding the difference in this judgment, the Cabinet Office stated, “In the economic trend index, judgment is emphasized on indicators related to production and shipment, but monthly economic reports are comprehensive in consideration of other factors such as consumption and employment conditions. Judging. ”
However, in the future, in addition to the decline in consumption after raising the consumption tax rate, there are concerns about the impact of the typhoon 19 on the economy, and the domestic economy is facing a critical moment.