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The United States and China concluded a trade truce on Friday night, leading Donald Trump to suspend a tariff increase on Chinese imports. Three questions to Sylvie Matelly, Deputy Director of IRIS, the Institute of International and Strategic Relations.
The partial agreement between the United States and China, which covers agricultural issues, is the most significant step forward between the two countries since the beginning of the trade war. For the US President, this news is welcome as the country entered pre-election campaign.
RFI: Sylvie Matelly, is the agreement reached Friday night a truce or a real armistice?
Sylvie Matelly : In the history of the eighteen months of trade war between the United States and China, it's hard to say. We want to believe that this is a new rebound, as there are every two or three months, but for once, there are really concrete measures, with in particular Washington which renounces to increase again the rights customs on more than two hundred and fifty billion dollars of Chinese imports, which is not nothing. And it is a sign of relaxation, whereas until then we were going to crescendo on the ads of taxation. The second important thing is that the Chinese are committed to buying $ 50 billion worth of US agricultural products, which is ten times more than what they do today. And it has been several weeks since we see the Chinese buy agricultural products and American meat. Where it matters is that the agricultural issue is a key issue for President Trump. Because some of its constituents are in the rural world, and these voters are very dissatisfied with the trade war . In fact, one of the first steps of his administration was to give subsidies to these farmers so that they would not suffer too much from this trade war. So we are in a political logic. The Trump administration is keen to limit the economic effects of this war.
RFI: For all that, fundamental problems, such as money and technological warfare issues, are not solved.
Whatever the scope of this agreement, we are in any case in a symbolic agreement, and whose scope is more political than anything else. Why ? Because the US is very clearly not in a trade war with China, it is in a confrontation to prevent China from becoming the world's leading economic power. It is a structural confrontation that will probably animate international relations for years, if not decades. Simply, we are one year away from the US presidential election, and Trump needs to make some success or, at least, not to worry his electorate. So, in the coming months, it will be in a desire to appease, even if, again, this will not change the structural issue. And I think that if he is re-elected it could even hurt a lot, because he will have nothing to prove and will be able to go to the end of his confrontation.
RFI: On their side are the Chinese able to impose a truce in the United States on sensitive issues like that of the manufacturer of phones Huawei, for example?
Yes and no. From an economic point of view, the interdependencies between the American and Chinese technological sectors are such that neither of them has an interest in total war. Very clearly the Chinese can not impose anything because they need the Americans. On the other hand, they have the ability to protect themselves very quickly from American threats. And it is the big mistake of the American administration to believe that it could stifle the Chinese economy, while it has only re-motivate the troops, companies, administration, population, to go even faster towards more autonomy. For the Americans, it's dangerous because they will lose the interdependence that gave them weight in the discussions. Beyond the empowerment of this Chinese economy, there is finally a China that seeks new partners to emancipate Americans. These include the New Silk Roads and the countries concerned, as well as Russia, for example.