• Housing.The real estate slowdown is accentuated: the sale of houses collapses by 21%
  • Experts. Alert for the 'brick' stagnation: lower prices and fewer operations

The abrupt collapse in the sale of homes, of 21%, which yesterday reflected the INE surprised both the sector and the experts . A setback was expected, especially because of the incidence of the new mortgage law coming into effect and due to political paralysis, but not of such magnitude.

The slowdown that now reflects the statistics of the INE was already partly advanced last week by the registration of notaries, although not so severely. According to the notarial registry, the sale of homes has experienced its worst month of August of the last two years and the mortgage firm has done the same in a year. The INE data reflects an even greater fall and places the sale of houses at their lowest level since 2015 ..

And a fall, in addition, without territorial exception. That is to say, the sale of homes has fallen in all the autonomous communities , although the greatest setbacks have been experienced in Extremadura (-42.7%), the Canary Islands (-41.2%) and Navarra (-39.4%).

In all the communities the falls were double digits, with only one exception: Galicia , where the fall was large (8.6%), but not as much as in the rest of the country.

In nine regions the fall was higher than the national average (-21.1%). In addition to those mentioned, the greatest falls were in the Basque Country (-29.1%); Cantabria (-27.1%); Aragon (-26.4%); Castilla-La Mancha (-25.9%); Asturias (-25.8%) and the Community of Madrid (-22.4%).

Should we worry?

Although the INE released on Thursday a worrying data on the sale of homes in August, with a sharp collapse of 21.1% in the number of operations compared to the same month of the previous year, experts are worried, but cautious.

Fernando Encinar, head of idealist studies, believes that "the significant fall" [August] reflects the impact on the operations of the entry into force of the mortgage law, which "paralyzed the granting of financing since mid-June."

"It is likely that the data for the next two months will continue to be affected by this measure, although the statistics will return to normal after that time," he says.

In this sense, Encinar recalls that «we cannot forget two other factors that are delaying purchasing decisions. On the one hand, the political uncertainty in which we are installed has paralyzed many investment operations, both large and small investors, while messages about an upcoming economic recession also raise doubts in many individuals.

Beatriz Toribio, director of Fotocasa Studies, was also cautious yesterday when reading the statistics of the INE. He attributed the abrupt fall «to the seasonal effect of the summer months and the normalization of the market , the effects of the new mortgage law that came into force last June and that led to the delay of purchase and sale transactions and Mortgage ».

The one in August, Toribio anticipates, will not be the only negative data we see from here at the end of the year, however, the annual balance will be positive, he says.

“Although the market is slowing down, everything indicates that 2019 will close at activity levels very similar to those of 2018 and market normalization will be confirmed. We already counted that this exercise was going to be more moderate than the previous ones. The economic slowdown to which different international and national organizations point will take longer to be reflected in official statistics and predict a less encouraging 2020 ”, he concludes.

On the other hand, the director of Estudios.com floors , Ferran Font, also links the decline in the sale of homes to factors such as economic slowdown, political paralysis in Spain or Brexit, since "they are clearly affecting the sector, which needs stability to meet the challenges. "

"A complicated summer closes after the June slump caused by the Mortgage Law and the sharp fall suffered in August, which installs this statistic in unpredictability," he concluded.

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Know more

  • Galicia
  • Spain
  • Basque Country
  • Navarre
  • Aragon
  • Asturias
  • Madrid's community
  • Castilla la Mancha
  • Cantabria
  • Canary Islands
  • Mortgages

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