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Civilians flee the fighting, not far from Ras al-Ain, on October 9, 2019. Delil SOULEIMAN / AFP

Despite widespread condemnation by the international community, Turkish President Recep Tayyeb Erdogan announced on Wednesday the beginning of a military operation against areas of northeastern Syria, controlled by Kurdish forces

"Source of peace". This is the name of the offensive that Turkey launched on Wednesday, October 9, as announced a few days ago, against the Kurdish forces in northeastern Syria, considered as " terrorists " by Ankara. According to President Erdogan, the goal is to create a " security zone " that separates the Turkish border from Kurdish positions. An operation that provoked a volley of international criticism .

What is the situation on the ground ?

The Turkish army concentrates its operations on the border towns of Ras al-Ain and Tal Abyad, located respectively in the Syrian provinces of Hassake, in the north-east, and Raqqa, in the north. After air raids and heavy artillery shelling, Turkish troops went on the ground offensive Wednesday night, attacking the city of Tall Abyad.

►Also read: Turkish Offensive in Syria: "IS will take advantage of chaos to re-establish itself in the region"

The Syrian-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces claimed a few hours later to have "repulsed" the offensive. More than 180 " terrorist " targets have been affected, according to the statement from the Turkish Ministry of Defense.

Faced with the intensity of fighting and shelling, residents in panic of Syrian border cities fled in disorder to regions further south, reports our correspondent in Beirut, Paul Khalifeh . Kurdish fighters armed with rocket launchers are deployed in the streets of the border towns, determined to resist the Turkish land offensive, which aims to establish a buffer zone of 400 kilometers long and 20 kilometers deep, ranging from province of Aleppo to that of Hassake.

A first report shows 15 dead including eight civilians. Syrian-dominated Kurdish democratic forces have called for the general mobilization of the population, while at the same time worrying about the humanitarian consequences of the Turkish offensive. They called on the international coalition against ISIS to set up a no-fly zone to " prevent attacks on innocent people ".

What are the forces involved?

Turkey has placed in the front line its Syrian proxy militias, disparate groups that it has trained, financed and regrouped within the Syrian National Army. Twenty thousand men, supported by thousands of Turkish soldiers, who have one of the best aviation in the region, hundreds of artillery pieces and heavy tanks.

The Kurds can mobilize up to 50,000 fighters seasoned by years of struggle against the Islamic State, and armed with weapons provided by the Americans, including cannons and tanks. The battle is going to be tough for both sides.

How did Damascus react to the announcement of the beginning of the Turkish offensive?

Syrian officials warned Turkey against any attack on the territorial integrity of Syria and assured that they would defend their country by all means. But Damascus is not willing to support the Kurds as long as they do not give up the federation project and the autonomy they proclaimed unilaterally on nearly 25% of Syrian territory.

On the ground, the Syrian army is massing troops in the eastern province of Deir Ezzor, located 300 kilometers from the border. If the Kurds weaken, the government troops will try to move to the east bank of the Euphrates, where are the largest oil wells in the country, now in the hands of Kurdish militias.

What are the reactions in Turkey?

If we can not speak of unanimity, we can say that a majority of Turks supports the current offensive, analyzes our correspondent in Istanbul, Anne Andlauer . The presence of Kurdish YPG militias along the Turkish border, the possibility that they will create an autonomous region in the Syria of tomorrow, or even an independent state, all this is perceived as a major security threat by the state. only by opinion.

Moreover, the main opposition party, the CHP, does not oppose either, while warning against an operation that could force the Turkish army to stay in Syria for many years. This is also reported by some observers who point out that Turkey has indeed chosen the launch date of the operation, but that it will not choose its end date given the number of actors involved.

On the other hand, the pro-Kurdish party HDP and its supporters are up against the offensive. For them, the real goal of Recep Tayyip Erdogan is to change the demographic balance of northern Syria - that is to say to drive the Kurds to resettle Arab Syrians currently refugees in Turkey.

Thousands of people can be expected to take the road to escape hostilities

There is no shortage of worry after the launch of the Turkish offensive against the Kurds in Syria. Starting with the situation for the trapped civilians who presage a new humanitarian catastrophe in the country.

" We have already witnessed strikes by the Turkish armed forces that resulted in the death of civilians in Afrin. They did not take the necessary steps to prevent civilian casualties, says Sara Kayyali, Syria specialist at Human Rights Watch. Our other biggest concern is the major crisis that will come with this military offensive. The people on the ground are frightened. They do not want to be trapped in the shootout. Thousands of people can be expected to take the road to escape hostilities. The problem is that Syria is already experiencing a major crisis with its IDPs because of the conflicts in the North West. Humanitarian organizations are overwhelmed. When you add to that tens of thousands of refugees fleeing violence, we are facing a humanitarian catastrophe that is unfolding before our eyes. "

Germany underlined the risk that this offensive could " further destabilize the region and cause a resurgence of the Islamic State group ". A concern shared by the NGO HRW.

" Turkey's incursion into northeastern Syria is likely to further destabilize the situation on the ground," said Sara Kayyali. On the one hand, you have tens of thousands of people suspected of belonging to the Islamic State organization, locked up right now in mixed prisons in deplorable conditions, and on the other the Syrian Democratic Forces that are struggling. to control this population. You also have thousands of women and children trapped in these mixed camps in equally deplorable conditions. Tensions are on the rise in these prisons and the Turkish invasion is likely to drag all the Syrian Democratic Forces and all other Kurdish groups to the North to fight Turkey. This means that these camps will find themselves abandoned from any surveillance. It is then foreseeable that we are witnessing the resurgence of the Islamic State organization, numerous attacks and further instability in the north-east of the country. "