As the official date of Brexit approaches, a very heavy atmosphere reigns on the Stock Exchange.
As the risk of a Brexit without agreement increases, global stock markets fear the storm.
The month of October is a cursed month on the stock market, it is the month of the crashes, 1929, 1987 and 2008. And psychology, it counts on the financial markets. But there are more fundamental reasons to worry and they accumulate. The first comes from the United States, a country that seemed out of touch with the global economic slowdown but is now affected: it's a game changer. The index of activity of the industrial sector, good barometer of the state of the economy, has just fallen to the lowest since 2009. One even mentions a risk of recession which would come from the industry, affected by the commercial war, and extend to the rest of the economy.
In Europe, is Brexit worried?
The backdrop in Europe is primarily an industrial heart down: Germany stalls, its car industry is violently affected by the global slowdown. Industrial production fell 5% year on year in Germany! And suddenly the whole economy is reached: the first European economy is in near-recession. Same thing in Italy. And of course the prospect of a hard Brexit does not help. Growth also stalled in the United Kingdom with a drop of 0.2% in the second quarter. That's why clouds accumulate on the stock markets. Markets that have performed well so far, since, apart from London, Tokyo and Hong Kong, the major global stock markets have posted double-digit growth since the beginning of the year. But be careful: they are turning around. The storm threatens. This month of October is one of all dangers.