- Statistics: INE changes the method of calculating GDP and reduces it by 5,000 million
The economic slowdown in Spain is already a reality. In fact, according to the forecasts that the Bank of Spain has published today, it is not a slight cooling, as the Government has tried to move, but rather a significant brake on growth. Specifically, the agency estimates that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will rebound 2% in 2019, data that contrasts with the 2.4% that the Bank itself estimated in June. That is, in just three months it has lowered its estimate by four tenths, a very notable and unusual figure .
In addition, the Department of Economics and Statistics led by Óscar Arce has also reduced its estimates for 2020 and 2021, that is, the entire time horizon analyzed. Thus, next year the economy will rebound 1.7%, which means subtracting another two tenths from its previous forecast, while in 2021 the forecast is 1.6%, which reduces the previous forecast by another tenth .
All these data remain well below the official forecasts of the Government, which for this year foresees a rebound of 2.2%, and in fact they are going in the opposite direction to the intention of the Minister of Economy, Nadia Calviño, of raise the growth forecast for this year.
The reasons for the lower growth, as explained by the Bank of Spain, are several. On the one hand there is the downward revision that a few days ago the National Statistical Institute (INE) made of the growth of the last quarters, a situation that in turn has caused a reduction of two tenths in the forecast for this year. And on the other are both external tensions , among which are the commercial war or Brexit, and the political instability of Spain , factors that in a combined way are responsible for the other two tenths of reduction.
Less job creation
To this, the Bank of Spain adds a moderation in the rate of job creation and a reduction in its estimates that, again, cover the entire scenario analyzed. "Membership slowed between May and August, with monthly growth of 0.1%," explains the Bank of Spain. Between January and April, on the other hand, the rate was 0.2%, so " the rate of job creation has been reduced by half ." "In addition," continues the Bank, "the registered unemployment has stopped falling in the summer months," showing a slowdown "somewhat more intense than expected . "
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