BOJ Tankan Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Deteriorate? Private Think Tank Forecast September 24, 7:16
A private think tank has compiled a forecast for the BOJ Tankan to be announced on the 1st of next month. Business forecasts are worsening in both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries due to the effects of trade friction between the United States and China, and are increasingly expected to worsen after the consumption tax rate is raised.
The BOJ Tankan asks about 10,000 companies in Japan about the current state of the economy every three months.
Before the latest results were announced on the 1st of next month, 14 companies including private think tanks compiled their forecasts.
In the Tankan, the index indicating the economic judgment of the manufacturing industry of a large company is particularly noted. It is.
In addition, the non-manufacturing industry forecast for large companies is positive 17 points to positive 25 points, and 12 companies, except for 2 companies, are expected to fall below the Tankan in June.
The reasons for the worsening economic judgment are that each company is losing exports and production due to trade friction between the US and China, and orders from the transportation and advertising businesses that are dealing with companies are also decreasing.
In addition, there are many predictions that the outlook after the consumption tax hike next month will be significantly worse, especially in the service industry such as retail and lodging / food.
There is a view that the current tax increase will have less rush demand and a reactionary decline compared to the previous five years, but the Tankan seems to be a focus on how strong corporate concerns about the economy after the tax increase appear.