Consumption tax increase for 2 weeks rush demand is smaller than 5 years ago on September 16 13:57
It has been about two weeks until the consumption tax rate is raised to 10%, and sales of high-functionality and relatively expensive TVs have increased in consumer electronics retailers, and rush demand has started. However, compared to the previous tax increase five years ago, the scale of rushing is smaller, and there is a view that consumption has already weakened.
When the consumption tax rate was raised from 5% to 8% five years ago, there was a rush in demand for housing and automobiles for more than six months, but this time there has been no noticeable rush demand. It was.
However, at the beginning of this month, sales of high-function and relatively expensive models such as TVs and washing machines are growing, especially at consumer electronics mass retailers, and it is seen as a last-minute demand.
Major department stores are seeing a surge in demand for expensive products such as jewelry and watches, while cosmetics and apparel are less likely to grow.
Many experts say that the scale of rush demand will be smaller as a whole than the tax increase five years ago, and the government says that there is no noticeable rush demand.
On the other hand, there are views that the effects of the government's economic measures have already come out, such as expectations for a cashless payment point reduction system. On the other hand, there is also a view that consumption has already weakened so that there is no big rush demand. The trend of consumption after the tax increase will be noted.
Expert “Short-run”
Regarding the rush demand before raising the consumption tax rate, Mr. Taro Saito, Director of Economic Research, Nissei Basic Research Institute, said, “Since a significant portion of the rush demand comes immediately before the tax increase, there is a rush in mainly on daily necessities. It ’s coming in the future, but the overall rush will be much smaller than the previous tax increase. ”
Mr. Saito cites the following three reasons why the rush demand is small.
Compared to the tax increase five years ago, the rate of increase in tax rate is small, and the introduction of a “reduced tax rate” will leave the tax rate for food and drinks excluding alcoholic beverages and dining out unchanged.
High-priced products such as automobiles, which were frequently purchased last time, have a long replacement cycle, and this time the demand is low.
And it is said that there is an effect of economic measures implemented by the government, such as a point reduction system for cashless settlement.
Mr. Saito said, “Domestic consumption increased by about 2% on average over the previous two years before the tax increase, but this time it has not reached about 1% this time. “The consumption trend is quite weak,” he points out that the willingness to consume itself is low compared to the previous tax increase.
For this reason, “The government has put policy emphasis on rushing demand and restraining the decline due to the reaction, but as the tax rate increases, prices will rise and consumers' real income will be reduced. , Even if the reaction is small, the weakness of consumption may be prolonged after that. "