The Dutch economy will grow less rapidly in 2019 than last year, and this slowdown will continue in 2020. Due to a global slowdown in growth, our export growth will also slow down, putting further pressure on the economy. That is what Rabobank economists predict on Monday in a new quarterly report.
The Dutch economy grew faster in the past six months than in many other European countries, which, according to economists, will remain so in the coming period. "But the global downturn is beginning to become noticeable. Industrial production has fallen in recent quarters and we expect exports to grow less rapidly this and next year than imports," said Ester Barendregt, chief economist RaboResearch Netherlands.
In the Quarterly Bulletin the economists adjust the growth forecasts for the global economy downwards, from 3.3 to 3.1 percent. In addition to domestic factors, this is due to deteriorated export forecasts from many countries. These are related to a declining growth in world trade volume and the ongoing and escalating trade war between the United States and China.
Economists believe that on balance stimulus policies from central banks and governments will not be enough to outweigh the negative influences on the global economy.
For the Netherlands, the expectations for 2019 are 1.8 percent growth and for 2020 1.4 percent. Consumers continue to spend money, Rabobank expects, and businesses are also continuing to invest more.
Current estimates assume an orderly UK departure from the European Union with a deal. "A disruptive Brexit without a deal can cost the Netherlands most of its economic growth next year. The chance of that is still uncomfortably high," says Rabobank.