RIYADH (Reuters) - The oil market will see a price rise of between $ 5 and $ 10 a barrel when it resumes on Monday and may jump to $ 100 a barrel if Saudi Arabia does not quickly resume supplies disrupted yesterday by attacks, traders and analysts said.
The attack on two units in the heart of the Saudi oil industry halted more than half of Saudi crude production, or about 5 percent of global supplies.
Bob McNally of Rapidan Energy said crude oil prices would rise by at least $ 15-20 a barrel in a seven-day turbulence scenario and would rise to more than $ 100 in a 30-day scenario. "Allowances are high, reflecting the depletion of global spare capacity amid ongoing risk of disruption, storage and panic."
Greg Newman, co-chief executive of Onyx Commodities, said Brent crude futures were expected to rise by $ 2 a barrel and prices would close at $ 7-10 a barrel tomorrow. Return to the price of $ 100 a barrel if the problem can not be solved in the near term.
Newman added that the prices of refined products, especially high-sulfur fuel oil, will increase due to the current shortage of supply and because it is a refinery product, which is linked most to Saudi heavy crude.
Ayham Kamel of Eurasia said: "A small premium of between $ 2 and $ 3 a barrel will appear if the damage seems to be a problem that can be solved quickly, and $ 10 if the damage to Aramco's facilities is significant."
"The scale of the attack will encourage markets to reconsider the need to consider a premium for the geopolitical risks faced by oil, while the attacks are likely to complicate Aramco's IPO plans given the high security risks and their potential impact on the company's valuation."
Kamel said: "The United States will not withdraw crude from the strategic reserve only if the damage to the infrastructure seems severe or oil prices have risen significantly."
"Five million barrels per day (bpd), about half of current Saudi production and about 5 percent of global supply, are very large by historical standards, and will start within a few weeks," said Samuel Sisuk, co-founder of ELS Analysys. To put pressure on the market. "
"This incident is a very uncomfortable alarm to impose significantly higher risk premiums on Gulf production," he said.
Christian Malik of JPMorgan predicted oil prices would rise by between $ 3 and $ 5 in the short term. "The market was going dormant in terms of the risk premium in the region, disproportionately focused on the risk to demand growth and supply," he said. Oil shale".
He also expected the price of oil to rise to 80-90 dollars per barrel over the next three to six months as the market shifted attention to geopolitical factors.
Gary Ross of Black Gold Investors said that "with the heart of the Saudi oil industry under attack, they expected prices to rise a lot to $ 65-70 a barrel."
"These attacks are hard to stop and may happen from time to time. The market has to take this risk into account."