- Tweeter
republish
A few hours before the opening of the big meeting of central bankers in the United States at Jackson Hole, the IMF sounds the alarm. Donald Trump's trade war against China will have a negative impact on the global economy, say chief economist Gita Gopinath and two of his colleagues.
This is the first time the IMF has come out of its reserve and openly criticizes Donald Trump's trade policy. For the IMF economists, this war between China and the United States, with punitive tariffs, will not make it possible to redress the trade imbalances.
The IMF even mentions a significant risk for global growth. Several indicators go in this direction. In the United States , the economy is slowing down, as companies invest little, worried about this trade war.
According to IMF forecasts, every $ 100 billion of imports affected by tariffs reduces world trade by about 0.5%.
► See also: Commercial War: Chinese tourists desert the United States
The IMF is also concerned about the disruption of supply chains. Still, some countries will take the opportunity to reposition themselves on new markets lost on the US side or Chinese side.
Finally, American consumers pay a heavy price. An import tax increase on a product is an increase in its consumer price.