Japan-Korea Relations and US-China Trade Friction Various Impacts on the Economy August 9th 19:12
In particular, GDP from April to June increased by 0.4% compared to the previous three months, and increased by 1.8% in terms of annual rate. It is a form that compensated for the drop in exports against the backdrop of trade friction between the United States and China with solid personal consumption. However, there have been concerns about the future of the economy due to factors such as worsening relations between Japan and Korea.
Japan-Korea relations worsen, impacts on tourism in both countries
The impact on tourism between the two countries is spreading against the backdrop of worsening relations between Japan and Korea.
Last year, the number of Korean tourists visiting Japan reached 7.53 million, second only to China by country and region, accounting for about a quarter of all foreign tourists visiting Japan.
However, due to the deterioration of Japan-Korea relations, there have been a series of cancellations to travel to Japan, and several Korean airlines have suspended or reduced flights to Japan.
The domestic travel industry has also been affected, and according to the major travel agency JTB, bookings for summer vacation trips have been declining since last month.
In this month and next month, the number of reservations for trips to Japan from Korea has dropped to about half of the previous year, and travel from Japan to Korea has also dropped by about 25% from the previous year.
Rin Kobuchi of the JTB Public Relations Office said, “Because of the long rainy season, reservations are starting to be delayed as a whole, and South Korea has had a considerable impact.”
A man in his 30s said, “I decided to travel to Shikoku. This is the situation in Japan and Korea, so it was not an option.”
In addition, a man in his 80s said, “I have traveled overseas about 30 times so far, but I must be a little hesitant about traveling to Korea for the time being.”
Deteriorating Japan-Korea relations also affecting department stores
The deterioration of Japan-Korea relations is starting to affect department store sales.
According to the preliminary sales figures for July, compiled by Hakata Daimaru, which has a store in Tenjin, Fukuoka, sales of “foreign tourists” were only 1%, the same as last month. .
Among them, the sales of tourists from Korea have been much lower than last year since April. July is 25% less than the same month last year.
Over the past few years, Koreans accounted for nearly half of foreigners visiting Kyushu, but it seems that the reason for this decline is that the number of visitors to Japan has decreased due to the deterioration of Japan-Korea relations.
Hirohiro Daimaru has just increased the number of smartphone payment terminals that foreign tourists often use from 10 to 120.
In addition, the entire tenant building where this store is located had introduced tablet devices with a Korean interpretation function used by Japanese staff.
In this department store, sales of foreign tourists have also been declining since the peak in March. In July, Hong Kong and Hong Kong decreased by 27%, and China also increased by 7%. I stayed.
“There are so many tourists in China and other parts of Asia, and it ’s nice to have no political friction in those areas. I think it ’s a convenient facility for Asian customers. I would like to respond to Japanese services including interpreters and hospitality. ”
Decrease in orders due to US-China trade friction
There are growing concerns among SMEs in Kansai that the trade friction between the US and China will be prolonged.
Osaka Yamada Manufacturing Co., Ltd., a metal processing company located in Daito City, Osaka, has about 20 employees and produces metal machinery and parts.
One of our main businesses is equipment for drying industrial films. It accounted for nearly 20% of sales.
The film is used for lithium-ion battery electrodes and smartphone LCD panels.
About 80% was exported to China through a Japanese trading company, but it is said that orders have dropped sharply since the large holiday in May.
The company believes that the reason is that the trade conflict between the United States and China has intensified, and the production of smartphones has declined.
Due to a sharp drop in orders, the sales of this device in June and July were more than 50% lower than before.
For this reason, the company is increasing sales of other machines and parts to compensate for the decline in orders overall.
Mr. Shigeru Yamada said, “I don't know what will happen in the future as orders for our main business decline. I hope that the situation will not be prolonged so that the impact will no longer increase. I would like to respond by increasing the production of other machine parts that are expensive. "
Companies Concerns over prolonged trade friction between US and China
Trade friction between the United States and China is beginning to affect the performance of auto parts manufacturers in the Tokai region.
“Daido Metal Industry,” headquartered in Nagoya, produces car engine-related parts at locations around the world and sells them to automakers in Japan and overseas.
In China, the economy has slowed down due to trade friction between the United States and China, and sales of automobiles have declined. Therefore, production and sales in China from January to June are almost the same as last year. It means that it has decreased by nearly 10%.
Due to uncertainty about the future, this company plans to reduce capital investment for one year by March next year by approximately 20% compared to two years ago.
“We are selling products to local manufacturers and European automakers in China, and the total production is going bad. The protectionism of President Trump in the US makes the world economy worse. I have it. "
On top of that, I am concerned that if the conflict between the United States and China is prolonged, not only China but also the American automobile market will be adversely affected and sales will decline further.
President Judgment said, “I think the US will have a worse impact next year. We want to manage this situation by using IoT and AI technology to increase production efficiency.” Talking
Expert “October and beyond is a critical moment”
Regarding this GDP, Shinichiro Kobayashi, principal investigator at Mitsubishi UFJ Research & Consulting, said, “The effects of the reform, especially the 10-day holiday, has greatly increased travel and leisure spending, and has boosted personal consumption temporarily. I think the concern that the economy has entered a recessionary phase due to the relatively strong figures has once receded. "
However, as for the future, “I think that personal consumption after October is inevitable due to the reaction of the last-minute demand accompanying the increase in the consumption tax rate. There is a possibility that the intention will be strengthened. "
On top of that, when the impact of the global economic slowdown due to trade friction between the United States and China is added to the deterioration in personal consumption, and exports decline, the Japanese economy will enter a critical moment, and the economy will finally be in a clear recession. I think there is a risk of getting in. "