Trading fluctuations: the dollar exchange rate for the first time in two months exceeded 65 rubles

On Friday, August 2, the Russian currency weakens during trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange. In the middle of the day, the dollar rose by 1% and for the first time since the beginning of June it exceeded 65 rubles. The euro, in turn, added about 0.9% and overcame the mark of 72 rubles. The last time a similar value could be observed even on June 28.

The official exchange rate of the Central Bank on August 3 was 64.64 rubles per dollar and 71.7 rubles per euro.

According to experts polled by RT, the cheapening of the national currency is associated with a general deterioration in investor sentiment in the global financial market. The exacerbation of the US-Chinese trade war was a cause for concern for the players. According to Donald Trump, as of September 1, the States are going to introduce new duties in the amount of 10% on the import of Chinese goods in the amount of $ 300 billion. On the eve of this, the American president wrote on his Twitter.

The Chinese authorities, in turn, have already threatened Washington with the “disastrous consequences” of new restrictions and warned of retaliation. This statement on Friday during a briefing was made by the official representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China, Hua Chunin, reports TASS.

It is noteworthy that back in June on the margins of the G20 summit, the parties agreed to resume negotiations to conclude a trade deal. At the same time, according to Trump, Beijing decided to revise the previously reached terms of the treaty, as a result of which Washington is going to increase pressure on the Asian republic.

“Trump openly accuses the Chinese that they deliberately delay negotiations until the next presidential election in the United States. Washington wants to push the PRC to more decisive actions to conclude a trade agreement, threatening to impose new restrictions. Earlier, the head of the White House acted in the same way with North Korea and with Iran, ”said Sergei Drozdov, an analyst at FINAM, in an interview with RT.

According to the expert, the intensification of the trade war may provoke an additional slowdown in the global economy. Thus, against the background of risks that have arisen, investors began to withdraw money from risky assets of developing countries.

Moreover, as noted by Drozdov, Trump's statements also provoked a noticeable outflow of funds from commodity markets and, as a result, caused a drop in oil prices. On August 1, the cost of the raw material of the reference brand Brent dropped immediately by more than 6% and for the first time since the end of June it dropped below $ 61 a barrel. According to the ICE exchange in London, during the bidding on August 2, the quotes rose slightly to $ 62 a barrel, but experts believe that prices will remain under pressure in the near future.

In addition to a significant reduction in the price of oil, investors in the Russian financial market also responded to reports of the possible introduction of new sanctions against Moscow. Natalya Milchakova, deputy head of the Alpari Information and Analytical Center, told about this in a conversation with RT.

According to the Politico newspaper, the head of the White House signed a decree on the second set of restrictions on the case of Skripale poisoning. However, as Milchakova notes, until the appearance of official statements and details about the next anti-Russian measures, investors will not change their long-term strategies and drastically withdraw funds from ruble assets.

In addition, according to the expert, at the moment internal macroeconomic factors protect the Russian currency from external shocks. So, according to Rosstat, in June inflation in Russia fell below the psychological level of 5% - to 4.7%. Moreover, analysts interviewed RT as positive factors also include a triple surplus (budget, trade balance, and balance of payments) and a high volume of gold and currency reserves of the country.

Natalia Milchakova believes that by the end of summer the dollar rate will remain in the range of 64–65 rubles, and the euro exchange rate will be around 71.5–71.8 rubles. In the future, the Russian currency may be influenced by the policy of the US Federal Reserve. This talk with RT was told by chief analyst at TeleTrade Pyotr Pushkaryov.

July 31 analogue of the American central bank for the first time in almost 11 years, lowered its interest rate. The decision should support the economy of the States, but will make investments in dollar assets less profitable. Although the head of the regulator Jerome Powell did not announce the beginning of a long-term policy of economic incentives, analysts still highly appreciate the likelihood of further rate cuts and a global dollar depreciation.

“Powell’s statements were rather controversial, but the head of Federesrva still hinted that the issue of easing monetary policy would be discussed at each subsequent Fed meeting. As a result, the expected reduction in interest rates will lead to a weakening of the dollar until the end of the year, and the ruble will be able to strengthen to the national currency of the States, ”explained Pushkarev.