According to a study, Germany needs a net annual minimum of 260,000 immigrants over the next 40 years to meet the labor needs of the economy. Without migration, the supply of labor in view of the aging society by 2060 by about 16 million people - that is almost a third - massively shrink, the researchers write
In determining the number of immigrants, potentials of the workforce living in Germany have been included, they emphasize. Thus, a higher birth rate and an increasing labor force participation of women and men are already taken into account. "But even if men and women worked the same way and a pension of 70 would be introduced in Germany, it would not be possible to cover the demand for skilled labor with domestic funds," writes the Bertelsmann Foundation as the sponsor of the study. Their figures are based on calculations by the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) and the University of Coburg.
Researchers predicted labor demand by 2060. Accordingly, Germany needs above all more skilled workers from third countries outside the European Union (EU). The Bertelsmann Stiftung pointed out that according to the Central Register of Foreigners 2017 only 38,000 skilled workers came to Germany without leaving the country.
Immigrants from third countries are crucial
By 2060, the study estimates that around 146,000 third-country immigrants and around 114,000 EU immigrants are needed each year to limit the demographic decline in the supply of labor to an "economically acceptable level".
According to the study, immigration from other EU countries has still been strong in recent years - in 2017 with a balance of around 250,000 people.
The researchers expect, however, that immigration from other EU countries will decrease in the future compared to previous years. Because economic power and quality of life are expected to gradually approach within the EU and the charm sinks to look for a job in Germany. As a result, immigration from non-EU third countries is becoming increasingly important.
The annual needs of an average of 146,000 third-country migrants are broken down by researchers as follows:
- By 2035, the German labor market needs almost 98,000 immigrants from non-EU countries every year.
- Between 2036 and 2050, almost 170,000 people would have to move in each year from third countries.
- Between 2051 and 2060, almost 200,000 immigrants from non-EU countries would be needed.
It is urgently necessary to better control the move to Germany, demand the study makers. The immigration law, which was set up shortly before Christmas by the federal government, must therefore be passed quickly, the foundation demanded. It is to be welcomed that the law also targets people with a medium level of qualification - this is the highest demand. However, a law is not enough. Without a sustained welcome culture and attractive integration offers, the shortage of skilled workers will not be able to be compensated.