Political silence before the next crisis that threatens Spain

Nearly a thousand electoral proposals distributed in almost 400 pages; hundreds of promises of spending or saving, of tax reduction or of tax increases for companies and

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Nearly a thousand electoral proposals distributed in almost 400 pages; hundreds of promises of spending or saving, of tax reduction or tax increases for companies and high incomes; and recipes that at times seem miraculous as they claim to be able to end the deficit of Social Security and raise pensions at the same time. But, on the other hand, there is not a single reference to the crisis that threatens both Spain and the world economy and that, as soon as it materializes, it will relegate the former to a second plane because the most important thing will be to tackle the possible recession.

The electoral programs of the five political parties that, according to the polls, will obtain a greater parliamentary presentation in the general elections of next April 28, silence a deceleration that is so evident and worrisome that it has provoked numerous warnings from the International Monetary Fund ( IMF), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of Spain.

The body led by Christine Lagarde worsened last week its forecasts for the Spanish economy, and warned of the inability of the country to reduce the unemployment rate and contain the budget deficit, all framed in " a delicate moment for the global economy " given the "significant weakening of the expansion".

The ECB, for its part, has acknowledged that the economic slowdown is higher than expected and, in fact, Mario Draghi has decided to maintain its vital support to the economy in the form of liquidity, and the Spanish regulator has been underlining for more than six months. the worst growth data of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of both Spain and many of its European partners.

And yet, politicians not only do not see - or do not want to see - this situation, but they continue to make numerous references to the crisis that began in 2008 and promise to return the economy to the years before the recession. The party that most intensely uses this argument of necessary recovery is Podemos . He proposes to reverse "some of the cruelest cuts in the crisis," such as those carried out in Health, and "repeal the norms that have institutionalized austerity and the lost decade in Spain."

They also bet on a tightening of the Corporate Tax for companies and new tax figures such as the tax on banks, or indefinitely linking pensions to the CPI and "shielding this guarantee by constitutionalizing it expressly". Measures, in short, that are aimed at raising public spending and fiscal pressure , actions that much of economic theory discourages, especially in a scenario like today.

Something similar happens with the 110 commitments with the Spain that you want to represent the program with which Pedro Sánchez aspires to remain in Moncloa, an objective that the demoscopic works increasingly point out is more feasible. The President of the Government emphasizes his "commitment to a markedly pro-European economic policy" and proposes to converge "gradually towards the average revenue of the European Union". The PSOE does not offer figures on what this action would mean but, according to Eurostat, the collection in Spain is over 34% of GDP, while the average of the euro area is 40%. Those six points of difference would suppose a rise of more than 60,000 million Euros, which without a doubt would be the greater fiscal hardening of the Spanish history .

In addition, both Sanchez and his economic ministers always emphasize that the robustness of the Spanish economy has an opportunity. A good example of this is the president's speech this week in the interview he gave Antena 3, the defense of the finance minister, María Jesús Montero, in the six-party debate held on Wednesday, or the intervention last week of the responsible for Economy, Nadia Calviño, at the Five Days Forum, where she relativized the warnings of the IMF and doubted the models that the Fund uses to reach its conclusions.

Neither the Popular Party develops in its program actions to protect the economy before the next recession, something that in this case calls for more attention because its economic manager, Daniel Lacalle, has warned on numerous occasions that the next crisis is every time closer.

It is true that Lacalle does argue, for example, that this uncertainty makes a significant tax reduction and more facilities for companies to better resist the braking, but it is also that in the official electoral document of Pablo Casado the word deceleration does not exist and that its only reference to a future crisis is made in a generic way. "We will continue to approach the period of calculation to all working life progressively, to avoid that the crisis years affect the amount of pensions at the time of retirement," says the popular election program.

Citizens, who had not presented a full-fledged electoral program until this Tuesday, promises to "revolutionize employment and training policies," "make Spain the best country in the world for families" through tax incentives, and recover "the Pact of Toledo to seek consensus on a reform that allows maintaining the purchasing power of present and future pensions.

In addition, bet "for innovation and research so that the next technological giant can be Spanish," will promote "an Anti-Fraud Law and Tax Evasion to close the legal holes that encourage these practices," and claims to be "the party of the self-employed and entrepreneurs »with numerous concrete actions for these workers. But of the looming deceleration, no trace .

Finally, Vox, whose far-right approaches are far removed from what is proposed by the rest of the forces, presents economic policies not yet known in Spain. In fact, it is the only training that makes a slight reference to the worsening of the economy, but far from the notices of the IMF or the ECB and limiting its consequences to the budget area. "Spain will not achieve the public deficit targets in 2019 and 2020 and faces the risk of a fiscal crisis in the face of the ongoing deterioration of the internal and external situation," warned the party led by Santiago Abascal, which supports the need to carry out a fiscal reform.

In the same line of radically different proposals with respect to what the majority parties propose, Vox argues that Social Security must be progressively transformed into a "mixed system based on capitalization and half on distribution". This, affirm most of the other parties, would be a first step for the privatization of pensions since, inevitably, a mixed model would cause the entry of private funds in the management of a part of the system. On the other hand, economists such as Juan Rallo and José A. Herce say that, although they totally reject Abascal's proposals, the economic and pension proposal is, in many cases, correct and that in the case of pensions, a measure of this type is essential.

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  • Spain
  • IMF
  • PIB
  • Social Security
  • We can
  • Pedro Sánchez
  • Pablo Casado
  • PSOE
  • PP

CataloniaThe PP believes that the leaders of the 'procés' seek clemency by betting on Sánchez

Politics The Government contemplates an adjustment of 3,000 million euros after the elections

Politics The members of Sanchez in the motion of censure have in their program the referendum in Catalonia

ref: elmuldo