After the inflation announcement: What experts believe about the interest rate
4/14/2023, 6:14:39 PM
Highlights: After a positive inflation announcement, the next question will be what the Riksbank will choose to do with the interest rate at the new announcement on 26 April. Experts agree that the policy rate is likely to be raised another 0.25 or 0.5 per cent in two weeks. Handelsbanken's chief strategist Claes Måhlén believes that the interest rates will remain unchanged after that until mid-2024. But it will take until late autumn before we can see interest rate cuts, says SEB's Robert Bergqvist.
After a positive inflation announcement, the next question will be what the Riksbank will choose to do with the interest rate at the new announcement on 26 April. "I think we can expect the Riksbank to hike a little more, but if we now start to see the peak in inflation, we will also see the peak in interest rates soon. But I think it will take until late autumn before we can see interest rate cuts," says Robert Bergqvist, Senior Economist at SEB.
Experts agree that the policy rate is likely to be raised another 0.25 or 0.5 per cent in two weeks. However, Handelsbanken's chief strategist Claes Måhlén believes that the interest rate will remain unchanged after that until mid-2024.
Thus, even if prices continue to rise, the speed at which they rise decreases.
SEB's Robert Bergqvist even believes that inflation may be back at the Riksbank's target of two per cent in a year's time.
But it will probably take a while before anything is visible on the policy rate.
"A tussilago doesn't make a spring. There may be setbacks, and the Riksbank is probably thinking too. So an increase of +.25 or 0.5 percent is probably in the cards now on April 26, says SVT's economic commentator Alexander Norén.