Tight and timely government intervention is a key factor in the fight against the spread of coronavirus. This is evidenced by the results of a study conducted by scientists from the Main Hospital of the People's Liberation Army of China, reports Frontiers in Medicine.

The researchers came to this conclusion by comparing the epidemiological situation in the Chinese province of Hunan and Italy. It was these regions that were chosen for analysis, since approximately equal numbers of people live in them - 60–70 million people. At the same time, Italy is one of the three countries most affected by COVID-19, and in Hunan, despite its proximity to the city of Wuhan, which is considered to be the source of the spread of coronavirus, a little more than a thousand cases of infection were detected.

To conduct the study, scientists used data published by the American Johns Hopkins University. Their analysis was carried out using an advanced mathematical model of the spread of SIR epidemics. Its original version provides for three possible states of a person: S - susceptible, I - infected and R - recovered. Chinese experts have expanded this model so that it takes into account measures taken by the authorities to prevent the spread of infection. 

According to estimates, a total of about 3.3 thousand people could get sick in Hunan. In reality, this figure was three times less. At the same time, the peak of infections was passed on March 3. In the case of Italy, Chinese scientists predicted 182 thousand infected and the end of the epidemic on August 6. Real numbers have already exceeded these indicators - the number of detected cases today is more than 210 thousand. 

According to researchers, this difference is due to the fact that preventive measures were not taken promptly in Italy, while decisive actions by the PRC authorities in Hunan minimized the number of infections. The main factors that allowed China to achieve such results, scientists called the restriction of population movement, early detection and isolation of people with symptoms of coronavirus infection, medical monitoring and temperature screening at the entrance and exit to various institutions.

It is worth noting that the Italian authorities announced the gradual weakening of the quarantine regime from May 4 - three months earlier than recommended by the mathematical model of Chinese scientists. Specialists from the Main Hospital of the People's Liberation Army of China do not agree with this decision.

“We believe that it would be too early to begin mitigation of restrictive measures from May 4 ... A second wave of infections may begin. Italy is not at the final stage of the coronavirus epidemic, ”said lead author Dr. Jia Wangping.

  • Chinese scientists have criticized the weakening of quarantine measures in Italy since May 4, 2020. According to their calculations, this can be done only after three months
  • Reuters
  • © cnsphoto

Scientists also emphasized that their study does not claim absolute accuracy. They are confident that due to the limited number of tests, the number of infected in Italy and other countries exceeds the official data, and the so-called super-distributors can create additional foci of infection and change the statistics not for the better. Despite this, the researchers are confident in the correct assessment of the danger of infection and are asked to listen to their advice.

“We want to emphasize: by introducing state control measures at earlier stages, we can significantly reduce the number of infections, which can be seen if we compare the development of the epidemiological situation in Hunan and Italy,” Jia Wangping summed up.