Does coronavirus do populist business?

In Hungary, President Viktor Orban has taken over the power to govern by decree for an indefinite period. Ditto in the Philippines, where the very authoritarian Rodrigo Duterte took advantage of the coronavirus pandemic to be granted presidential powers extended without time limit. And in Russia, as in China, the leaders have increased electronic surveillance of their population under the pretext of fighting the spread of Covid-19.

Enough to give cold sweats to those who, like the Polish political scientist and activist Slawomir Sierakowski, assure that the virus weakens democracy because "the populists adore the coronavirus".

However, in the United States, Brazil or the United Kingdom, leaders with populist tendencies were quickly put in difficulty after being strongly criticized for their management of the health situation. The boastfulness of US President Donald Trump or Jair Bolsonaro, his Brazilian counterpart, about their country's ability to cope with a virus of which they have minimized the dangerousness came up against the reality of the disease and the number of victims in steadily rising. "Populism will be the next victim of Covid-19", wants to believe the Politico site, which welcomes the return to the front of the stage of the words of experts and scientists in this period of crisis.

"Crises are the time of the strong executive"

"It is still too early to know if populist regimes will be the big winners of this pandemic or if it will show its limits," said Pawel Zerka, political scientist at the European Council for International Relations, interviewed by France 24.

In theory, the situation may seem ideal for these leaders who, in general, have a very generous conception of the prerogatives of the head of state. Indeed, "crises are the time of the strong executive who has the means to act and who is best placed to interpret the facts and get the message he wants to the population", reminds France 24 Thomas Greven, populism expert at the Free University of Berlin. "The population tends to turn and unite around the person of the leader, which gives him more room for maneuver," adds Catherine Fieschi, populism specialist and director of the Global Policy Institute at Queen Mary University in London. , contacted by France 24.

Viktor Orban, in Hungary, did not hesitate to take advantage of it. This is also what happened, to a lesser extent, in Israel, where Conservative Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, accused of populist drift, took advantage of the epidemic to suspend the work of the courts - when he had to be tried for corruption - and reduce the power of Parliament.

But the Covid-19 also poses an unprecedented challenge to politicians who have mastered the art of getting out of delicate situations by rewriting history. From Washington to Moscow via Brasilia and London, they all started by comparing the coronavirus to a "bad flu" that they would have no trouble containing. But "it is obvious that this habit of the populists to distort the facts to serve their political interest has not made it possible to make disappear the reality of the deaths due to the disease", underlines Catherine Fieschi.

The triumph of the republic of experts?

Hence the thesis that the coronavirus could raise awareness and lead to a sort of return of the Republic of experts, which would triumph over populism. "The risk is lower for leaders who have authoritarian tendencies like Viktor Orban, capable of taking measures capable of muzzling any dispute, but it is a real threat for populists who are part of the traditional democratic game like Donald Trump or Boris Johnson, "recognizes Pawel Zerka.

However, it would be premature to sell the skin of these populists. "We must distinguish two phases in a crisis like this one: the health one, where scientific reality prevails and the economic and social one, where these leaders can take control of the discourse," explains Catherine Fieschi.

It is no coincidence that all these tribunes began to point accusing fingers. "They will do everything to try to make others wear the hat in order to profit politically from the situation. A game in which the populists excel," recalls Thomas Greven. In Hungary, Viktor Orban was quick to point out that the first cases of Covid-19 had occurred among the population of foreign students, especially of Iranian origin. In the United States, Donald Trump insists again and again on the Chinese origin of the virus and maintains that the epidemic would be proof of the usefulness of border closings. Because the threat would come from outside.

The whole question is whether the maneuver will work. Thomas Greven is pessimistic: "Society is so polarized [in the United States] that there is a good chance that this discourse will have its effect and that ultimately the political lines do not move very much."

All benefits for populists in the opposition

Pawel Zerka goes further. For him, if the risk exists that most of these leaders will emerge without a scratch from this crisis, it could especially give a second wind to populists in the opposition. "They are the ones who have the most to gain because they are in the comfortable situation of being completely unaccountable and of being able to wait for the situation to settle before starting to distribute the bad points to the authorities and to designate culprits" sums up the political scientist of the European Council on International Relations.

Thus, he fears that in Europe, the epidemic will lead to a resurgence of anti-European discourse "because the European institutions, ill-equipped to deal with a health crisis since most health issues fall within the competence States, are an easy target. " He also anticipates that the traditional xenophobic discourse of these movements will be enriched by attacks against immigrants and refugees portrayed as potential carriers of disease.

If populism were to emerge strengthened from this pandemic, it would bode ill for future crises, according to Catherine Fieschi. Because it is an ideology which, she explains, "tends to favor the majority in an exaggerated way by silencing divergent opinions. A climate unfavorable to compromise and scientific debate, which slows down the reaction capacity when a health crisis presents itself. "

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