Mbappé and Neymar's value drops 20% in "an unprecedented crisis"

Will the economic crisis caused by the Covid-19 epidemic reduce the pressure on the transfer market? At least that would be the beginning of good news. We are not yet in the bursting of the bubble, but the coronavirus will have an impact on the value of the biggest players, affirms on Wednesday a study of the cabinet KPMG. The value of Kylian Mbappé and Neymar, for example, could drop by more than 20%.

"The clubs are facing an unprecedented crisis," said the audit firm, because of the loss of TV rights, sponsorship and "match day" revenues that will hit European football. "Financial constraints will probably lead to a drop in both the number of transactions and the amount of transfers" in favor of loans, player exchanges or players at the end of the contract and free, writes KMPG.

Mercato XXL and trading, the transfer market will adapt to the crisis https://t.co/fFcRpUdUZL

The firm tried to quantify the loss of value of more than 4,000 players playing in the ten main European championships: English Premier League and Championship (2nd division), Spain, Germany, Italy, France, Netherlands, Belgium, Turkey and Portugal . His research shows an average loss of 20% in value for the twenty most expensive players if the end of the season is canceled and 13% if it resumes and goes to its end.

With 21.5% and 21.7% respectively falling compared to the scenario of the stoppage of Ligue 1, Mbappé and Neymar, the two most expensive players in Europe, are a little above this average. The French striker is valued between 177 and 188 million euros, against 225 million euros in the estimate of KPMG in February, while Neymar would no longer be worth 175 million euros but between 137 and 149 million euros .

The age and remaining term of the contract are important factors. The Argentinian Lionel Messi, soon 33 years old, would lose between 23.2% and 27.5% of his value (at 127/134 million euros) and the Belgian Eden Hazard would be worth between 95 and 101 million euros, a drop from 25.5% to 29.8% since February.

Conversely, Raheem Sterling (Manchester City) would lose only 10.5% to 13.8%, for a value between 129 and 134 million, and would become the 3rd most expensive player in Europe. His compatriot Jadon Sancho, just 20 years old, would be worth between 121 and 127 million, only 8.5% and 13.4% less than three months ago.

Despite the crisis, "the price of the best players should not drop" via @ 20minutesSport https://t.co/UPEamlLFd8

These valuations are far from being only theoretical. "In some cases, the market value of the players will drop below their value in the clubs balance sheet, causing significant accounting losses, which will increase the pressure on the clubs," warns KPMG. Thus, at club level, if Manchester City has the most expensive squad in Europe, PSG would only be 7th in this ranking, while it was 6th in February. Between 169 and 238 million euros would have "flown away" for PSG in the wake of the pandemic due to the coronavirus.

But in the top 10, it is especially Barcelona (between 20.5% and 28.9%) and Real Madrid (from 19.1% to 27.2%), followed closely by Chelsea (from 19% to 27 %) who suffer the strongest impact.

From the seller's market to the buyer's market

KPMG seems to believe that post-pandemic football will never be the same again. "From a" sellers market ", where clubs often had the power to negotiate high transfer fees for their players on departure, we will no doubt observe a" buyers market ", where a minority of clubs will operate the financial difficulties of their counterparts, "predicts the study.

"The clubs' need and desire to lower wages will probably persist when the virus is gone and football returns to normal," the study also predicts, which also forecasts lower signing bonuses. "All things considered, it would seem that (the pandemic) will have a positive effect on the sustainability of the football industry in the long term," concludes the study on an almost optimistic note.

Sport

Coronavirus: The LFP validates a loan guaranteed by the State to compensate for the shortfall in TV rights

• Neymar
• Kylian Mbappé
• Mercato
• Coronavirus
• Soccer
• Sport