Unintentional cancellation: why the battle of Nurmagomedov-Ferguson could take place even in the conditions of a coronavirus

Why did Nurmagomedov fly to the UAE?

One of the main questions remains the reason for the departure of the current UFC champion from the United States to the UAE. According to Nurmagomedov, he held a consultation with the leadership of the Absolute Fighting Championship and received information from them that the 249th tournament will most likely be held in Abu Dhabi. In the same place where in September Habib confidently sorted out the American Dustin Porrier. The Russian hastily advanced to the Emirates, but was unable to enter the country due to the closure of borders.

In this situation, there are several strange moments. First, Nurmagomedov said he flew to Abu Dhabi on March 19 or 20 after negotiations with the UFC. However, at this time, entry into the UAE was already closed. Thus, either the championship did not follow the progress in the Arab state and gave Khabib the wrong advice, or the Russian was the initiator of the flight. It is no secret that the champion’s entourage was interested in the fight with Ferguson taking place there, and thus could try to put pressure on the organization. It is worth recalling that Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov has repeatedly hinted that the battle could take place in Dubai.

Why didn’t Nurmagomedov return to the USA?

Secondly, it is not clear why Nurmagomedov decided to go to Russia after an unsuccessful flight to the UAE. Of course, the epidemiological situation in the USA promised much to be desired, and the American Academy of kickboxing was quarantined, but returning to the States would be a much more logical decision. If only because the UFC is an American company and has the most connections in its own country. It could be assumed that the upcoming tournament will by all means try to arrange precisely in the territory of the United States.

In addition, there were several good reasons for returning to the United States. In this case, Nurmagomedov not only remained closer to the promotion and could communicate directly with him, but was on equal terms with Ferguson. Thus, in the event of a sudden change in the venue of the battle, he would not have spent too much time acclimatizing. What certainly could not have been avoided if I left for Russia.

According to Nurmagomedov, the UFC assured him that the fight would definitely not take place in the United States. However, this is contrary to the news received over the past week. Even then, information was received that the show will be held in Florida. Nurmagomedov could contact the promotion and ask them for clarification on this matter, and, as a maximum, be safe and fly to the United States. Information about the new venue appeared on March 25, when air traffic was not yet suspended.

Why did the UFC begin negotiations with Gatgee in advance?

Such measures may be due to the fact that previously the duel between Nurmagomedov and Ferguson broke down four times. Dana White was probably preparing for such a development of events and thought in advance about a fallback. This could insure the UFC from canceling the tournament, which in the current realities is very likely. Given the fact that most athletes are self-isolated and have no motivation to keep fit, it would be almost impossible to find a replacement for one of the athletes in the shortest possible time.

Therefore, it can easily turn out that Gatgy was aware of his status long before the current events. At the moment, he takes fourth place in the lightweight rating and has a series of three victories, which automatically makes him one of the most obvious candidates to replace Nurmagomedov or Ferguson.

In addition, he lives in the United States, which can become an additional help for him. He does not need to solve issues with a visa and entering the country, which only strengthens him in the status of an ideal fallback option. In addition, Gatgi previously expressed his readiness to “declare war” on White and the organization if McGregor gets the right to fight for the title before him. It is possible that in this way Dana tried to appease one of the rising stars of the division and show that she was counting on him.

Why does McGregor not respond?

On paper, it was the Irishman who was the main candidate to replace one of the participants in the title fight. Firstly, his status as one of the main MMA stars in history speaks for him, secondly, his successful return to the octagon in a duel with Donald Cerrone, and thirdly, his long-term hostility with Nurmagomedov and his obsession in the shortest possible time for the fiasco in October 2018.

Given the position of McGregor, only he himself could force him not to consider himself as a substitute for UFC 249. If White associates could attract Conor and release him instead of Nurmagomedov, they would definitely take advantage of this. Firstly, paid broadcasts would have sold incredibly and could have provided record profits, and secondly, if successful, the Irishman cemented the title of the first applicant and guaranteed one of the most anticipated remixes in the history of mixed martial arts.

The fact that the UFC is in talks with Gatgy only means that McGregor is not interested in fighting at the 249th tournament. Perhaps he did not train properly, so he was not ready to fight the strongest lightweights on the planet. Or it just does not fit into his plans. Earlier sources close to the Irishman reported that he intended to enter the octagon and fight for the title in the fall.

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Posted by Conor McGregor Official (@thenotoriousmma) Mar 28, 2020 at 10:07 PDT

Should Ferguson agree to replace an opponent?

If the UFC is still able to organize this show, and Nurmagomedov fails to hold the third defense of the title, Ferguson will be in an extremely difficult position. If he decides not to enter the cage with the same Gatgy, then he risks losing both the fee and the status of the first applicant. If White was quite loyal to his refusal to fight with Max Holloway for the time zone in 2019 and did not exclude Tony from the list of trophy seekers, then this time he could act more harshly. Especially considering the difficulties he encountered in organizing the event.

In the current environment, Ferguson will be the main victim. In case of victory, he will not receive anything of value and in fact only guarantees himself the sixth attempt to meet with Nurmagomedov. At the same time, defeat can put an end to his champion ambitions. In February, Tony turned 36 years old, which is already an advanced age for representatives of light divisions. Of course, now the American is still at its peak, but a recession could follow very unexpectedly. Over the years, athletes begin to lose speed and reaction - the most important qualities for fighters of the category up to 70 kilograms.

What should the UFC do with a champion belt?

The only motivation for Ferguson to appear in the cage is perhaps to deprive Nurmagomedov of his champion title and draw him at UFC 249. In this case, the American will probably agree to fight with anyone, because victory will forever enter his name in the history of mixed martial arts. But there are practically no prerequisites for such a verdict of promotion. Of course, if in the words of Nurmagomedov there is no lack of agreement.

If Habib extremely reliably described the events, and his flight to Abu Dhabi was made on the advice of the UFC, then all the blame lies with the American promotion. In this case, he himself deprived himself of the main fight of the evening and contributed to the fact that the current champion was not able to speak in the United States. But if Nurmagomedov arbitrarily left the United States and did not return there after rumors of a show in Florida appeared, then the situation is changing. In this case, the Russians themselves can be found guilty of disruption of the fight, which threatens him with the loss of title.

Nurmagomedov was used to preparing for his battles with maximum comfort and carefully planning his camp, but in these conditions he was deprived of this opportunity. It is possible that such problems led to a loss of motivation and made him think about refusing to speak. It is worth recognizing that the absence of any information and the place and date of the show can drive anyone into a stupor, but Habib is a professional fighter and must be prepared for such difficulties. After all, the same Ferguson never said that he was ready to transfer a duel because of the coronavirus.