After the big loss against Portugal, Sweden has settled into a nightmare situation to be able to advance to the medal matches at the Tele2 arena in Stockholm. It is not even certain that victories in the three remaining matches will suffice - and to top it all, a baking Norway awaits in the next match on Sunday.
Situation in the main round:
Norway and Slovenia have 4 points each, Portugal and Hungary both have 2 points, while Sweden and Iceland remain at 0. If two or more teams end the group at the same point, the results of the mutual meeting will determine.
Probable scenario:
Sweden loses to Norway and is thus completely away from the fight for the two top positions leading to the European Championship semi-finals.
Possible dream scenario:
- Sweden wins against Norway, Hungary and Iceland - and goes on to score six points
Here we assume ...
... that Norway wins its two other matches (Iceland and Slovenia).
... that the current group-two Slovenia crosses against Portugal, but loses against Hungary.
... that Portugal beats Iceland, but loses to Hungary.
In that case, Norway would win the group by eight points, before Sweden by six points. Hungary would also have six points, but end up behind Blågult due to a mutual meeting. Slovenia and Portugal would both stay at five points.
Other possible scenario:
- Sweden wins against Norway, Hungary and Iceland - but still does not progress to six points
Here we assume ...
... that Norway wins its two other matches (Iceland and Slovenia).
... that Slovenia beats Hungary, but loses to Portugal.
... that Portugal beats Iceland, but loses to Hungary.
In that case, Norway would win the group by eight points. Portugal, Slovenia and Sweden would all have six points - but Blågult would be knocked out because of losses in mutual meetings.