United Kingdom and Gibraltar European Union membership referendum
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How did the London "Financial Times" ask on Monday: "Will French President Emmanuel Macron have his Gaullist hour and say no to Britain's a la carte exit?"
Well, then this Tuesday night would be the perfect time for Macron to meet British Prime Minister Theresa May at the Paris Élysée Palace. She's just from Berlin and has certainly not heard a no.
But does Macron really even think for one second of throwing the British out of the EU without an exit contract? Does he really remember the veto of 1963, when then-French President Charles de Gaulle firmly opposed the UK's admission into the then European Economic Community?
"Although Macron is playing the role of a hard dog, he will not do anything to jeopardize the consensus of the 27 EU states in their talks with London," says Sébastien Maillard, director of the Jacques Delors Institute in Paris MIRROR. Instead, the European expert speaks of a distribution of roles between Paris and Berlin that would correspond to the actual interests. "For Germany, the British exit would have more serious economic consequences than for France," says Maillard.
In fact, in recent weeks, Macron repeatedly stressed that France was well prepared for a "no deal" with the British and had little to fear. But that, too, according to Maillard is part of the bargaining tactic. After all, one of the 27 would have to put pressure on May - and according to the 1963 precedent, this is best done by De Gaulle's successor.
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So the French are setting conditions for May's postponement of Brexit. Above all, they want evidence that May's talks with the opposition Labor party in London are not just a show and offer a real compromise perspective. Most of the time, the Élysée fears that May may be booted from her own party because of her talks with Labor and that a tough Brexit supporter could take command in her place. Then, according to voices from the Élysée, today's assurances that Britain would not sabotage the rest of the EU at a later Brexit would not be worth anything.
In any case, here are Macron's biggest concerns: first the euro crisis, then the refugee crisis, now the Brexit crisis - the longer they drag on, the more incapable the EU appears from the perspective of its citizens, say advisers to the French president. And that could, citizens, according to their conclusion, already hard at the European elections in May.
But such reservations do not outweigh one thing: France, despite all temporary dislocations very close relationship with the island neighbors, which does not even question a theoretically better togetherness in the EU after the British exit. Germany's debate on arms export bans teaches the French just again: they have in Europe as an important military allies only the British, whether with or without Brexit. This will not change for the foreseeable future.
Do not break the fence!
That's why Macron knows how to curb his anger over May and the incompetent London Parliament. Not for nothing did he write in his letter to all Europeans at the beginning of the European election campaign that "Britain will find a full-fledged place in Europe". Militarily, according to the ulterior motive, it will never lose him anyway.
A patient, French public knows that too. Whether politically right or left: The Brexit fatigue is everywhere, but it does not lead to serious abuse of the British. Even Figaro, who is always very European-minded and sovereign, warned this week that he was exaggerating Macron's role as a critic in the EU.
Maillard agrees: "At Brexit we will all be losers in the end," regrets the head of the Paris department. "The EU will no longer be the largest economy in the world, counting less than 500 million people."