Guatemala: Bernardo Arévalo has become president – ​​can he prevail?

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Guatemala's President Arévalo and Vice President Karin Herrera at a spiritual ceremony of the indigenous Maya: Repressed since the Spanish conquest 500 years ago.

Photo: Emmanuel Andres / AFP

During the election campaign, Bernardo Arévalo bought a protective vest for the first time.

He received death threats because he announced that he would restrict the privileges of the super-rich and push back the drug cartels.

He is now the president of Guatemala and only leaves the house with armed security.

Even in Germany he is always accompanied by the police.

Arévalo traveled to the security conference in Munich in mid-February, where he is a sought-after discussion partner.

Because it represents the hope for a new democratic beginning in the most populous country in Central America, with around 18 million inhabitants, which borders directly on Mexico.

And: Many of the migrants who cross the border into the USA illegally come from Guatemala.

This afternoon, Arévalo is sitting in the wood-paneled breakfast room of his hotel.

A tall man with calm brown eyes, rimless glasses and a blue suit.

Not a man of grand gestures, rather one who thinks before he speaks.

The father brought more justice to the country - can the son achieve something similar?

The 65-year-old was born in Uruguay, studied in Jerusalem and Utrecht, spent his life as a diplomat, an academic in think tanks and, most recently, an activist.

In 2015 he played a role in the country's anti-corruption protests, which later gave rise to the Semilla party, of which he is now the leader.

Semilla means seed.

"We will take away these corrupt elites' businesses and their way of life," he says.

Guatemala's poor only refer to the rich elite as "el paquete corrupto", the corrupt pack.

More than one in two people in Guatemala live below the national poverty line.

In the recent election, many of these neglected citizens voted for Bernardo Arévalo - making him head of government.

An outsider has already won once in Guatemala, in the first free elections exactly 80 years ago.

He also triumphed over the corrupt elite and ruled for at least six years.

He implemented social reforms, implemented literacy programs and increased the minimum wage.

The president at the time was Juan José Arévalo.

He was the father of Bernardo Arévalo.

Can the son do something similar?

Arévalo says he will not build high-security prisons to incarcerate suspected drug lords and gangsters in large numbers, as his populist and popular counterpart Nayib Bukele does in El Salvador, who has thereby reduced the violence and murder rate in the country.

“Violence only creates new violence,” says Arévalo.

"And we are tired of the violence in our country."

Guatemala's new head of government is also a counter-model to the trend of right-wing populist dictators in the neighborhood, who are clinging to power with a hard hand.

Like Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela and President Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua, who is feared by both the people and criminals.

Until the very end, the Attorney General tried to prevent Arévalo's presidency.

Arévalo says his Semilla movement succeeded in mobilizing urban youth and the indigenous Maya.

The indigenous people make up more than 40 percent of the population and have been pushed to the margins of society since the Spanish conquest 500 years ago.

“The seeds have sprouted,” says the president, hardly seeming to believe it himself.

After Arévalo's election in August, prosecutors tried to annul the vote, and the inauguration on January 14 was also delayed.

Until the last minute, the Attorney General continued to think up new legal tricks to prevent his presidency.

It was also pressure from the USA, which imposed sanctions on politicians and members of the judiciary, that ultimately helped Arévalo take office.

But how can we take away the privileges of the super-rich and criminals?

To push back the drug cartels and their gangs from Mexico?

Guatemala is a country where businessmen and drug lords have been collaborating for decades to systematically undermine the political system.

A country in which the judiciary does the dirty work for the secret rulers when it prosecutes political opponents with fabricated accusations and drives reputable investigators into exile.

The elites steal 30 to 40 percent of the state budget

Can the fight against corruption be successful in a country as dysfunctional as Guatemala?

Arévalo says the corrupt elites are primarily targeting the state budget.

Corruption causes 30 to 40 percent of the budget to disappear every year.

Money that would then be missing for hospitals, schools and roads.

A vicious circle.

The president believes that he can fight corruption and crime with the power of the law - and hopes for help from the USA.

When drug cartel leaders have been brought to justice in the past, it has been largely due to Washington's help.

Several Guatemalan drug traffickers have been prosecuted and brought to justice by US authorities.

In January 2023, for example, a US federal court in San Diego sentenced a drug lord from Guatemala to more than 17 years in prison.

This is also why Arévalo traveled to Munich, where he met, among others, with US Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas.

For the USA, in turn, Arévalo's plans are an opportunity to curb migration from Guatemala.

Because people need a reason to stay in their homeland.

Arévalo could be that reason.