Interview

ECOWAS crisis: for Lionel Zinsou, “the countries of the Sahel are trying to escape sanctions which have significant consequences”

On Sunday January 28, Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso announced that they wanted to leave ECOWAS with “

immediate effect

”. Questioned by RFI, the former Prime Minister of Benin, Lionel Zinsou, reviews the socio-economic implications of this decision.

Former Beninese Prime Minister Lionel Zinsou, co-president of the Southbridge Pan-African Investment Bank, has agreed to evaluate the major's land acquisition program in the Tilenga/EACOP project. © Ludovic Marin / AFP

By: Arthur Ponchelet

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RFI: Is the announcement from Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso a surprise?

Lionel Zinsou

: Not at all. These three countries were suspended from ECOWAS (after the coups which brought the military juntas to power), with additional sanctions. Even if they were lifted for Mali, they are particularly harsh for Niger. We see that there is solidarity between these three countries. That they are leaving ECOWAS at the same time is therefore not a surprise, it is the consequence of a real crisis with the institution.

Has ECOWAS gone too far in your opinion?

I wouldn't say that. It is in the logic of ECOWAS to want to maintain a normalized situation in terms of democratic functioning, rather than legitimizing regimes resulting from coups d'état. Suspending the countries concerned is in line with the logic of the institutions. Afterwards, power relations are established and what we see is a manifestation of this. Everyone has their own legitimacy: ECOWAS wants to enforce its legal principles, and the Sahel countries are trying to escape sanctions which have significant economic and social consequences.

What will happen at the institutional level?

Theoretically, one year passes between notification and actual departure from ECOWAS. But it was said that the announcements took effect without delay. I rather think that there will be a negotiation. Official

mediation

by the President of Togo

is also underway. Perhaps we are in a phase of transition rather than immediate rupture.

What are the consequences of these departures from ECOWAS?

When Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have left ECOWAS, customs duties will apply to bring their goods into the member countries of the economic community. This may therefore be a little more difficult for companies from these countries which are already working throughout the region, but also to attract new investors.

Sahelian countries

are important suppliers to coastal countries

, particularly in animal products. Things will also be more complicated for transport services and ports, since the

countries of the Alliance of Sahel States

(formed by Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger in September 2023) are landlocked. However, they cannot evacuate their production to the North by crossing the Algerian desert. Furthermore, it is impossible for these countries to isolate themselves, because from one end of ECOWAS to the other, population exchanges are too important. Herders who engage in transhumance will continue to cross porous borders.

We can therefore imagine that there will be bilateral agreements with Morocco or Mauritania to bring production out of the Sahelian countries?

This is not the end of the story. We cannot cut countries off from each other, because they are much more integrated than we think. Customs statistics do not take into account informal trade, which is very important. Furthermore, it will be necessary to evacuate uranium and oil from Niger through Benin, or even send electricity from Ivory Coast to Mali. Even from a simple cultural and human point of view, countries are too connected to isolate themselves. This will have to be translated institutionally: either through bilateral agreements, or through a compromise with ECOWAS, or through a special regime.

Do you think that the next step for the States of the Alliance of Sahel countries consists of leaving UEMOA and creating their common currency?

It is in any case much more complicated than leaving a common market. WAEMU allows trade with the rest of the world using the currency resources of all member countries. It also makes it possible to finance the budgetary deficits of its members. Getting out of there means finding monetary means to overcome these two problems. This is not obvious in the case of the countries of the Alliance of Sahel States, which have two significant deficits (6.8% for Niger in 2022, 8.5% for Burkina Faso, Editor's note) and a situation security difficult. As for the creation of a common currency, it is a very complex process. In East Africa, the East African Community (EAC) has been working for years to create a common currency between the Kenyan, Tanzanian and Ugandan shillings and the Burundian and Rwandan francs... These are very difficult steps. This is why it is not necessarily the next step.

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  • ECOWAS

  • Sahel

  • Niger

  • Mali

  • Burkina Faso