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Republican primaries in the United States: “Nikki Haley missed her best chance”

Former President Donald Trump won the Republican primary in New Hampshire on Tuesday, January 23, by eleven points against his rival Nikki Haley.

A big step towards his inauguration and therefore, a return match for Donald Trump against Joe Biden in the presidential election in November.

Candidate for a Republican nomination for the US presidential nomination, Nikki Haley, in Hampton, New Hampshire, January 23, 2024. REUTERS - BRIAN SNYDER

By: Achim Lippold Follow

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Former US Ambassador to the UN,

Nikki Haley

, doesn't want to throw in the towel just yet.

For her, “

 the race is far from over

 ”.

Does she have the means to continue her campaign?

And what are the next steps in a campaign whose suspense will mainly come from the side of justice?

Elements of response with Paul Schor, historian, lecturer in American civilization at Paris Cité University.

RFI: Donald Trump won the Republican primary in New Hampshire, facing his rival Nikki Haley who refuses to throw in the towel.

Can she continue her campaign?

Paul Schor:

This is indeed a victory for Donald Trump.

A victory which is perhaps a little less clear than in Iowa, but a victory which puts Nikki Haley in difficulty.

Primaries are a complicated system in the United States, but New Hampshire's was arguably the most favorable to Nikki Haley.

And she undoubtedly missed her best chance to break Donald Trump's dynamic.

She said she's going to continue because she's a former senator from South Carolina and the next big thing for her is the South Carolina primary in a month.

The problem is that South Carolina is a state that is more conservative than New Hampshire.

This is a state where Republicans are much more loyal to Donald Trump than in New Hampshire.

So, I have difficulty seeing how she could win this state against Donald Trump who, with a certain number of elected officials from the Republican party, is putting very strong pressure on Nikky Haley to abandon the race.

Because as long as it continues, Donald Trump will have to spend money to campaign for the primaries.

And he said it last night: he prefers to spend this money on advertising spots against Joe Biden.

Does it have enough financial means to stay in the race?

This is indeed a question because it appears that she spent a lot of the money she raised for her campaign in New Hampshire.

Now, she must return to see the big donors in particular, that is to say the billionaires who support the various candidates.

She had gathered around her a number of big donors who weren't necessarily enthusiastic about her own candidacy, but who wanted someone other than Donald Trump.

Particularly with the argument that Nikki Haley put forward in her primary campaign which consisted of saying that she would be best placed to beat Joe Biden.

But, after yesterday's defeat in New Hampshire, will major donors continue to invest in Nikki Haley?

Impossible to say at the moment.

It seems pretty clear that, even if she can continue the primaries for a while longer, she is not going to win them.

With the suspense limited, possible twists and turns in the presidential campaign will now come more from justice?

Yes, it will undoubtedly come more from outside the Republican party.

Even if the primaries continue until the convention – in case Nikki Haley decides to stay in the race – there will be no more suspense.

Concerning legal proceedings, Donald Trump's strategy consists of requesting the recusal of judges and trying to delay the proceedings.

So that the trials do not take place before the election, in any case so that he is not convicted before the presidential election.

It should be noted that according to some polls, a good portion of Republican voters would vote for Donald Trump, even if he were convicted and found guilty.

The former president therefore succeeded in his strategy: namely to present the trials as political maneuvers.

The question is to know what the effect of the trials will be, not on the Republicans, since they will undoubtedly largely vote for him, but on the independents, the undecided, and all the voters moderately seduced by Joe Biden , and who could possibly vote for the other candidate.

Also read: Headlines: Donald Trump's victory in the Republican primary in New Hampshire

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