Europe 1 with AFP 9:15 a.m., January 23, 2024

Donald Trump and Nikki Haley cross swords in the New Hampshire Republican primary.

Already an ultra-favorite, Donald Trump, on the strength of a victory in Iowa, is ahead of his rival by almost 20 points in the polls.

If he crushes his rival at the polls in New Hampshire, it would be extremely difficult for the former South Carolina governor to recover. 

The ultra-favorite of the American right Donald Trump and his former ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, face each other on Tuesday during the Republican primary in New Hampshire, a vote which should decide the rest of the race for White House among conservatives.

Tuesday, “get out of bed and go vote!”, urged the ex-president Monday evening during a campaign rally in Laconia, in this state in the northeast of the country.

“Catch your neighbor, catch everyone, we have to go because we have to win by a large margin,” he added.

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An unequal battle

Donald Trump is ahead of Nikki Haley by almost 20 points in the polls for this second primary.

“Now we are just two people and I think one of them will probably not be here tomorrow,” he predicted, in front of a small noisy crowd, affirming that “the time has come to rally for the Republican Party.

The withdrawal this weekend of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, once considered Donald Trump's main right-wing rival before the collapse of his campaign, brought the leading trio back to a duel.

But the battle is very unequal.

Donald Trump, supported by a solid base of fervent supporters, has already handily won the Iowa primary on January 15, far ahead of Ron DeSantis (second) and Nikki Haley (third).

If he crushes his rival at the polls in New Hampshire, it would be extremely difficult for the former South Carolina governor to recover.

The road for Donald Trump, 77, towards his official nomination as Republican candidate against Democrat Joe Biden in the November presidential election could then be completely clear.

But if Nikki Haley, 52, narrows the gap significantly, or even manages to pull off a miraculous victory in this state with a significant proportion of independents, this would place her in a good position for the next election at the end of February in her state of Carolina. from South. 

A balancing act

Nikki Haley must engage in a balancing act: criticize Donald Trump without alienating the Trumpists.

She notably questioned his cognitive abilities after he confused her, in a speech, with the former Democratic President of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi.

Donald Trump "is simply not at the same level as in 2016", she attacked on CBS, judging the former president in "decline" and risking causing "chaos".

A shame for Donald Trump who never stops making fun of Joe Biden, his age (81) and his blunders, even imitating his sometimes hesitant approach during his campaign rallies.

New Hampshire only represents 22 delegates.

To be officially designated, the Republican winner must obtain 1,215.

But compared to more conservative states, it gives a better indication of possible national electoral success and subsequent primaries.

Independent voters are authorized to vote in the primaries of both the Republican and Democratic parties, without being affiliated with them.

Donald Trump, prosecuted in several cases, including one for attempting to reverse the results of the 2020 election, must spend the next few months between the courts and rallies.

He was scheduled to attend a hearing in his defamation trial in New York on Monday but the hearing was postponed.