Gaza War: Syria's troubling passivity
Champion of Arab nationalism, which places the Palestinian cause at the heart of its discourse, Syria, target of numerous deadly Israeli raids, has observed a deafening silence since the start of the Gaza war on October 7.
How can we explain this disturbing passivity?
People and members of the security forces gather in front of a building destroyed during an Israeli strike in Damascus, January 20, 2024. AFP - LOUAI BESHARA
By: Paul Khalifeh Follow
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From our correspondent in Beirut,
Since the Syrian army and its allies defeated rebel groups and regained control of more than two-thirds of the territory, starting in 2016, Israel has carried out hundreds of air raids in an effort to prevent or slow deliveries of Iranian weapons to Lebanese Hezbollah.
The fighter-bombers target “
cargoes and warehouses of weapons and ammunition
”, “
arms convoys
”, “
military positions of pro-Iranian militias
” in almost all provinces under the control of government forces.
Airports in Damascus and Aleppo have been targeted and taken out of service on several occasions.
Since the start of the Gaza war on October 7, Israel has significantly intensified its raids.
On December 25, a new level was reached with the death in an airstrike of one of the most senior officers of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards in Syria,
Radi Moussavi, south of Damascus
.
On Saturday, January 20,
Israeli planes destroyed a four-story building
in the Damascene neighborhood of Mazzé, during a meeting of senior officials of the al-Quds Brigade of the Iranian Guards.
Five members of this elite corps were killed, including the deputy head of intelligence and his right-hand man.
No response from the Syrian army
Aside from the use of air defense systems, the Syrian army has almost never responded to hundreds of Israeli strikes in recent years.
After the January 20 raid, the Syrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs simply published a statement denouncing “
Israel's criminal acts
”, without expressing any intention of retaliating.
This military passivity has been accompanied, since October 7, by weak political reactivity towards the events in Gaza.
President Bashar al-Assad took several days before speaking on this subject and the interventions of Syrian leaders on this issue are limited to episodic press releases and declarations.
However, Syria is an essential component of
the “axis of resistance
”.
This alliance sponsored by Iran includes, in addition to Damascus, the Lebanese Hezbollah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad in Palestine, the “Islamic
Resistance in Iraq
”, made up of Shiite groups and organizations, and the Ansarullah movement which controls the north of Yemen, including the capital Sanaa.
The importance of Syria comes from the fact that it is the only member of this axis – apart from Iran – with legal and legal state status recognized by the United Nations.
All the other members of this alliance are extra-state actors (some are placed on American and European lists of terrorist organizations), even if, like Ansarullah, they control large portions of territory, or, like Hezbollah in Lebanon, they have great political and military influence.
The weak link in the pro-Iranian axis
However, Syria's central role in this alliance stems from its geographic location.
Its maritime facade offers Iran access to the Mediterranean, its border with Israel allows Tehran and its allies to have levers of pressure on the Hebrew State, and, finally, it ensures geographical continuity between Iran and Lebanon via Iraq.
Syria is a vital link in the supply line that supplies Hezbollah with weapons and ammunition from the Islamic Republic.
If Syria falls, the continuity of this land corridor will be broken.
Syria is therefore an essential actor in the “axis of resistance” but it is at the same time its weakest link.
After 13 years of war and severe Western sanctions, notably the American Caesar law, the country is bloodless and the economy destroyed.
90% of the population lives below the poverty line, certain social categories suffer from famine.
Infrastructure is on its knees, fuel shortages are chronic and electricity is drastically rationed.
The Syrian army, which has not returned to its barracks for 13 years, is deployed today on 5 fronts: in Latakia, Idleb, in the northwest of the country, and Aleppo, in the north, facing jihadist groups and pro-Turkish rebels;
in the north of the provinces of Aleppo, Raqqa and Hassaké facing the Turkish army and its auxiliaries;
in the towns of Qamichli and Hassaké and the eponymous province, in the North-East, facing Kurdish militias;
in the central desert facing the Islamic State group;
in Deir Ezzor, in the east, facing the Kurds and American troops;
in Quneitra and Deraa, in the South, facing the Israeli army.
Faced with all these challenges, the last thing the Syrian army would want is to enter into direct confrontation with the Jewish state.
It therefore avoids responding to Israeli attacks so as not to provoke an escalation, especially since Israel's priority targets are the Iranians and their allies.
The American deployment in the Mediterranean, a deterrent effect
The deployment of an American fleet in the eastern Mediterranean from the start of the conflict had a deterrent effect on the Syrian government.
“
We took seriously the indirect threats that reached us about the intention to eliminate “the head of the regime
” if the Syrian army decided to participate directly in the war,” a Hezbollah official told RFI.
Also, we understand the restraint shown by Damascus and we do not ask it for more than it can give
.”
By not getting further involved in the conflict, Syria is also seeking not to compromise the process of reintegration within the Arab League and the normalization of its relations with Saudi Arabia.
The Syrian media have also given great importance in recent days to information on the upcoming appointment of a Saudi charge d'affaires in Damascus.
At this stage of the war, Iran and its allies seem to be satisfied with the freedom of action granted to them on the ground by the Syrian authorities, who are more in a logic of survival than of confrontation.
However, if the conflict spreads, there is nothing to say that they will not demand more from this embarrassed ally.
Also listen: Conflict in Israel: risks of conflagration in the Middle East?
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