Baptiste Morin // Photo credit: PHILIPPE HUGUEN / AFP 06:13 a.m., January 16, 2024

On Tuesday, INSEE unveiled its demographic report for the year 2023. Unsurprisingly, the birth rate is expected to fall sharply over the last 12 months. This is a French problem that is now well identified and the main reason has also been identified. This is a family policy issue.

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When it comes to the birth rate, public policies play an important role. The origins of the demographic crisis can be traced back to the years of François Hollande's presidency. It was during his term of office that parental leave was reformed. The level of compensation and duration have been lowered.

It was also during his term of office that the family quotient was reduced and with it the tax advantage associated with the arrival of a child. It was also during his term of office that the universality of family allowances came to an end. While they were paid from two dependent children to all families, the amount of these subsidies was adjusted according to income.

Negative family policy measures lead to low fertility

"When we study fertility in France over the different decades, we see an extremely good correlation between changes in family policy and fertility," explains demographer Gérard-François Dumont, professor at the Sorbonne and president of the journal Population and Future. In other words, when there have been negative family policy measures, fertility has fallen.

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These decisions have had an impact on the standard of living of potential parents and to this have been added two other subjects: housing and places in crèches. "With the sharp decrease in state grants to local authorities, these local authorities – they are not shouting it from the rooftops – have had to invest much less," adds Gérard-François Dumont.

A drop in births of more than 10% in 10 years

So why isn't the subject of a government plan? The same thing would have happened in family policy as in energy policy. "France had a good energy policy, cheap energy and decided that it had to liquidate this policy by significantly reducing nuclear power and prices rose rapidly. France had family policy results envied by other countries, but when you make savings in family policy, this translates into higher spending on social policy," the demographer said.

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Over the past 10 years, births have fallen by more than 10%. In the first eleven months of 2023 alone, the birth rate is down by 7%.