Beijing, January 1 (ZXS) -- Scholars interpret Taiwan's election: The mainland will never leave any space or opportunity for the "Taiwan independence" separatist forces

Reporter of China News Service

The results of the two elections in Taiwan in 2024 were announced on the 13th, Lai Qingde and Xiao Meiqin won the election of the chairman and deputy leaders, and the DPP will continue to be in power for the next four years. In an exclusive interview with a reporter from China News Service, a number of mainland scholars said that the DPP has struggled to maintain its basic position in the "blue-white cooperation" situation, but in the future, it will be greatly checked and balanced by the opposition forces, and the administration of the authorities will not be smooth. In terms of cross-strait relations, it goes without saying that Lai Ching-te's assumption of power will have an impact on the situation in the Taiwan Strait, and the mainland will absolutely not leave any space or opportunity for the "Taiwan independence" separatist forces.

Lai Qingde's victory is "a fisherman's profit"

Zhu Weidong, director of the Institute of Taiwan Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that Lai Qingde's coming to power was the result of the superposition and resonance of various factors, and could not be interpreted as a victory for "Taiwan independence." As a result of the DPP's eight years in power, there is still a market for public opinion in the island's society, especially among the younger generation, of "leaning on the United States to resist China." The results of the election of the chief and deputy leaders are basically consistent with the mainstream judgment before the election, and about 60% of the public hopes to "remove the DPP".

Zhu Weidong said that the breakthrough of the "blue-white cooperation" has led to the failure of the "non-green" forces to effectively integrate, and Lai Qingde's "fisherman profited" in the blue, green, and white election campaign; in addition, the DPP vigorously played the "anti-China and anti-reunification" card and hyped up cross-strait issues in the election campaign, which diverted the focus of some voters.

Liu Guoshen, director of the Collaborative Innovation Center for the Peaceful Development of Cross-Strait Relations at Xiamen University, believes that compared with the past two Democratic Progressive Party candidates who won the leadership elections in the Taiwan region, Lai Qingde's vote rate this time has dropped significantly. The DPP has also lost more than half of its seats in the legislature, and the party's space to govern in the next four years is very limited. "It will be difficult for Lai Qingde to do whatever he wants. ”

Since the Chinese Kuomintang and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) are close in the legislature, and the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) has markedly increased the number of "legislator" seats compared with the previous election, Ni Yongjie, director of the Shanghai Institute of Taiwan Studies and editor-in-chief of the Taiwan Strait Studies, judged that after the election, the Taiwan People's Party will play the role of a "key minority" in the legislature.

The illusion of "Taiwan independence" is bound to aggravate cross-strait tensions

Observing the changes in Taiwan's public opinion reflected in this election, Ni Yongjie said that peace, development, exchanges, and cooperation are still the mainstream public opinion on the island for the two sides of the strait. The majority of the people look forward to the establishment of stable and friendly cross-strait relations, and have doubts about Lai Qingde himself, the DPP's ability to govern, and its line of "relying on the United States to resist China."

Liu Guoshen said: The DPP's two past administrations have made the Taiwan people see very clearly that "Taiwan independence" is a sham and an impossible thing to achieve. Zhu Weidong stressed: The obsession and illusion of the Lai authorities for "Taiwan independence" will certainly further aggravate the tense relations between the two sides of the strait, which already lack mutual trust. If confrontation and confrontation are intensified, the risk of cross-strait relations getting out of control will also spiral. Before the election, an international think tank released a report listing Lai Qingde as one of the "most dangerous friends" of the United States, which shows that he is already internationally recognized as the biggest threat to undermining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.

Zhu Weidong believes that in the next four years, the DPP and Lai Qingde's "Taiwan independence" policy will be constrained by many parties. More importantly, the mainland will never leave any space or opportunity for the "Taiwan independence" separatist forces. "Taiwan independence" means war, and speeding up "Taiwan independence" means speeding up reunification. Ni Yongjie said that the mainland should do a good job in risk management and control in the Taiwan Strait, use the toolbox to crack down on "Taiwan independence" and promote peaceful reunification, and at the same time expand cross-strait exchanges and make integrated development more practical and detailed. (ENDS)

(Participating authors: Yang Chengchen, Zhu He, Chen Jianxin, Zhang Yangbin, Chen Chen, Lin Shixiong)