play videoplay video

Video duration 26 minutes 02 seconds 26:02

Experts and analysts believe that Israel has begun to retreat politically and militarily from its first goals of war in the Gaza Strip, and that it may have begun to pave the way for an exchange deal or a de-escalation of operations after the dispute between its security and political institutions reached the stage of disintegration, and the army no longer wants to continue fighting.

The Israeli Army Radio had announced – earlier on Monday – that only 3 teams (99-162-96) are remaining in Gaza currently after the withdrawal of more forces.

Israel Hayom also reported that the withdrawn 36th Division included the Golani, VI, VII and 188th Brigades along with the Engineering Corps.

Commenting on this withdrawal, military expert Maj. Gen. Fayez al-Duwairi said that it is due to many reasons, including the fact that some of them, such as the Golani Brigade, have suffered severe blows at the hands of the resistance, as well as heading to the third phase of the ground war.

Al-Duwairi said, during his participation in the program "Gaza ... On (15/1/2024), Israel withdrew the majority of its forces from northern Gaza, to meet a field need in the center and south, yet it did not achieve any achievement, which prompted it to withdraw new forces for rehabilitation.

Al-Duwairi believes that the forces that have been withdrawn will be in a state of combat readiness after they are qualified, pointing out that pushing them to other areas means that the war continues and will not stop, but if they remain on alert in the cover area, this may be an indication of thinking about stopping the fighting in one way or another.

Undo goals

In the context, political analyst Dr. Bilal Shobaki said that Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant's talk on Monday about continuing the fight until victory is achieved "is normal, because he does not want to retreat from what he said in the past, when he was talking about many achievements, and reiterated that the return of prisoners will only be done by force."

However, the new speeches of Israeli officials, which began to ignore talk of uprooting the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), indicate an implicit retreat from their initial goals, and that they want to save face for the War Council, especially Galant, according to Shobaki.

"These conversations mean that Israel's military leaders realize that it is difficult to eliminate an entire movement, but it is possible to deal certain blows to it," Shobaki explained.

Shobaki believes that this new Israeli talk "is in line with the change in the American discourse about the possibility of coexistence with the movement and reducing its offensive capabilities," describing it as "surrender in one form or another."

On the other hand, in Gaza, writer and political analyst Ayman al-Rafati pointed out that residents expect a prisoner exchange deal soon, and perhaps a calm or a temporary cessation of the war, especially with the continued withdrawal of forces and the exacerbation of differences between Israeli institutions.

Al-Rafati believes that the withdrawal of troops may be a response in one way or another to the resistance condition of the need to stop the aggression before negotiating prisoners, as well as reflecting the army's support for an exchange deal in order to distance itself from the accusations.

"There is information about new proposals that have reached the resistance in the exchange file, coinciding with US President Joe Biden's talk about his strong quest to recover prisoners, and the tense military situation on the ground," al-Rafati said.

Israel Moved Beyond Confusion to Disintegration

Regarding the increasing talk inside Israel about the need to stop the war and exchange prisoners, Shobaki says that some ministers had concerns about the war at first, but refrained from stating them for fear of being accused of being unpatriotic, noting that they began to announce these fears recently "because what is happening now represents a danger to Israel."

Shobaki believes that there are differences affecting the security institutions and the government, especially the Shin Bet, which has submitted reports to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warning him of the worsening situation in the West Bank, where it is no longer possible to talk about a security or military solution after this solution failed in Gaza.

Shobaki explained that the Tel Aviv operation, which took place on Monday, "means that the policy of uprooting the weapons of the resistance does not mean the cessation of operations in one way or another, even in light of security precautions and concerns."

Besides, Israel found itself standing before the International Court of Justice on charges of genocide, "which puts Netanyahu in a dilemma, because he was the one who stood up one day to tell the world that Israel is an oasis of security, democracy and investment, and here is the picture collapsing in front of everyone," Shobaki said.

The same spokesman concluded that the issue in Israel "went beyond confusion and reached the point of disintegrating radical institutions within the state."

Al-Rifati echoed the view that the resistance has important pressure cards in the exchange file, which may give it the strength to adhere to its condition of stopping aggression.

The information revealed – during Monday and yesterday – about the fate of some prisoners "may force the government to exchange a deal and overcome the obstacles set by Netanyahu and Galant, who want to calm down, not stop the war," according to Rifati, who believes that the army "does not want to continue the war or leave the military prisoners in Gaza, but it is unable to recover them."

In the end, General Duwairi believes that Netanyahu will bow to the demand to stop the war due to the military stumbling, but he believes that the timing depends on increasing internal pressure on the one hand and the United States on the other.

He concluded that Washington could push Netanyahu to stop the war if it gave up timid pressure and began effectively threatening to reduce military supplies.

Source : Al Jazeera