The suspense, which had lasted for 19 months, was lifted. The Foreign Affairs Committee of the Turkish Parliament gave the green light on Wednesday 27 December to Sweden's accession to NATO. This text still needs to be ratified by the Plenary Assembly in the near future. Turkey was the last member of the Atlantic Alliance, along with Hungary, to block Sweden's entry into NATO.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has agreed to lift his veto in exchange for a possible U.S. commitment on the delivery of F-16 jets to Turkey. The Turkish head of state had a telephone conversation in mid-December with his American counterpart, Joe Biden.

The latter is visibly "willing to take a step towards Turkey and to deliver these planes and the F-16 modernization kits that the Turkish army already has, in return for the agreement of the Turks to Sweden's entry into NATO. But the sale must be approved by the US Congress, where the balance of power is fluctuating, said Didier Billion, deputy director of the Institute for International and Strategic Relations (Iris). It's a complex game and no one knows the outcome."

Historical disputes between Ankara and Athens

Sweden had submitted its application at the same time as neighbouring Finland, which was admitted in April, after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Turkey's veto of the Scandinavian countries' entry into NATO has aggravated tensions between Ankara and the Atlantic Alliance.

Read alsoSweden's accession to NATO: what did Erdogan get?

Since the beginning of the accession process, Turkey has objected to Stockholm's supposed indulgence towards certain Kurdish groups considered terrorist by Ankara, such as the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK in Turkish). But Sweden's position has changed in recent months. "The country has started to impose sanctions on a certain number of PKK militants, or even to send them back to Turkey," said Aurélien Denizeau, a doctor of political science at the National Institute of Oriental Languages and Civilizations and a researcher in international relations.

This is not the only bone of contention between Turkey and NATO. Long-standing disputes between Ankara and Athens, both members of the Atlantic Alliance, are also causing tensions within the organisation. Disagreements over the status of maritime territories, such as the Greek islands in the Aegean Sea, are at the root of the conflict between Turkey and Greece.

The two countries do not agree on the delineation of their sea and air borders in this area. "It destabilizes NATO because it's a clash between two member states. But also because this conflict has shown that not all the countries of the Atlantic Alliance have a uniform approach on the subject. France supports Greece while Germany is more reserved. Hungary and Poland are close to the Turks, while the Americans criticise them without actually defending Greek interests," explains Aurélien Denizeau.

During a historic visit by President Erdogan to Athens on December 7, the first since 2017, Greece and Turkey agreed to warm up diplomatic relations. Among the commitments made were the increase in trade volumes and work on the thorny issue of the Aegean Sea.

Read alsoOperation reconciliation between Greece and Turkey on the occasion of Erdogan's visit

Turkey does not impose sanctions on Russia

Turkey's refusal to impose sanctions on Russia is also causing tensions within the Atlantic Alliance, even though Ankara supports Ukraine, including by supplying it with Bayraktar TB2 attack drones. Ankara has also closed the Bosphorus Strait to ships of Russia's Black Sea Fleet.

"It is the commentators in the NATO countries who blame Turkey for not having taken sanctions against Russia. Governments are aware that the country cannot afford this. Ankara is largely dependent on Moscow for its energy supply and cannot take the risk of an economic crisis," Denizeau said. Moreover, the researcher points out, Turkey maintains good relations with Eastern European countries, members of NATO, such as Poland. Yet, the latter "are viscerally hostile to Russia. But from their point of view, the Turks' talks with the Russians are not a problem."

On the other hand, Turkey's announced purchase of S-2017 air defence missiles from Russia in 400 is causing many concerns within the Atlantic Alliance. For the time being, these weapons have not yet been activated. NATO is demanding that Turkey send them back to Moscow. The issue is security. "By integrating technological data into these missiles, Russia could gain access to some sensitive data of NATO countries. Activating these missiles is tantamount to integrating weapons with Russian components into the Atlantic Alliance, says Aurélien Denizeau. From an organisational point of view, this represents a form of penetration of Russian high technology into the defence system of the Atlantic Alliance."

The war in Gaza, a hot topic

The return of war in the Middle East is also causing differences between Turkey and the other NATO member countries. The Turkish president is championing the Palestinian cause. Some of his statements are far removed from the positions of the majority of the governments of the Member States.

Turkey does not consider Hamas a terrorist organization, unlike the United States, Canada, or the European Union. "Hamas is not a terrorist group, it is a group of liberators who protect their land," the Turkish president said on 25 October. Recep Tayyip Erdogan went so far as to call Israel a "terrorist state" in front of members of his party gathered in the Turkish Parliament on 15 November.

Observers have noted a change in tone from the Turkish president after the October 17 explosion at Gaza's al-Ahli hospital, which may have been caused by a rocket fired by a Palestinian group, according to independent investigations.

"After October 7, Recep Tayyip Erdogan was in the position of a mediator. But after the explosion at al-Ahli hospital, he totally radicalized his discourse by sharply attacking Israel, says Didier Billion. He knows that part of public opinion agrees with him. And at the regional level, this discourse is appreciated by the peoples of the Middle East. The Western powers know that his tough and radical statements serve Recep Tayyip Erdogan's fundamental interests, even if it raises tensions with NATO countries."

But these tensions will not go as far as divorce. Washington sees NATO as needing Turkey, a country it sees as a "fortress on the alliance's southeastern flank. And a very useful basis for action in the region," explains Aurélien Denizeau. For his part, "the Turkish president considers that the Atlantic Alliance is Turkey's real security insurance. Neither Russia nor China can play this role," Billion said.

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