Washington — Washington seems to have breathed a sigh of relief as Lebanese Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah's speech ended, and after the White House stated, "We are familiar with Hezbollah's rhetoric, we do not seek to expand the conflict, and we have been clear with our allies that no third party will intervene in the war between Israel and Hamas right now."
In his speech on Friday, Hassan Nasrallah criticized Washington's position in support of the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip, saying that "whoever wants to prevent a regional war must quickly stop the aggression on Gaza." He said he had received warnings from Arab governments against igniting a wider war and provoking a US military response, adding: "These threats will not change our position, and group after group will join the war."
Following the speech, Michael Singh, a former White House official and expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, tweeted, "I expect Nasrallah's speech to be greeted with satisfaction in Washington, because it does not portend an Iranian escalation, but rather may be seen as a message to Iran's other proxies to curb their actions. The threat he said to the United States and Israel is useless and far from the real message."
Former White House officials downplay the seriousness of Hassan Nasrallah's threats (Reuters)
U.S. Concerns
Since the beginning of the aggression, Joe Biden's administration has warned of the dangers of the conflict expanding, and National Security Adviser Jack Sullivan said in televised remarks that "the risk of escalating the war between Israel and Hamas into a broader regional conflict is real," and vowed that the United States would continue to respond to attacks by "Iranian proxies" to deter the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.
The front line between Hizbollah and the Israeli occupying forces has been witnessing military skirmishes that have intensified in recent days, but they have not crossed any red lines for both sides. US forces in Iraq and Syria have also been attacked, and the Houthi group in Yemen has fired several missiles towards Israel.
Concern has increased in Washington in recent days over increased attacks on US forces deployed at several bases in Iraq and Syria, raising fears that "Iran and its proxies may seek to expand the conflict and destabilize the region." This was followed by US fighter jets bombing several facilities in eastern Syria used by Iran and its affiliated factions.
David Des Roches, a former Pentagon official and lecturer at the National Defense College in Washington, explained that "if any Iranian-backed group ever strikes a U.S. base, it will get a response from the United States. The reason now is the war between Israel and Hamas, where Iran believes it is the leader of the axis of resistance, which includes Shiite factions in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Hamas and Yemen." "The only groups fighting Israel now are Hamas, which is the only Sunni member of the axis of resistance."
Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Roche said that "the attacks launched by militias affiliated with Iran are not dangerous, and so far, Iranian proxies have launched only routine calculated attacks."
The former Pentagon official stressed that if the United States wants to deter Iran from directing proxy attacks against its interests or presence in Syria, Iraq, or elsewhere, two conditions must apply:
- First, make clear that it holds Iran responsible for these attacks and will not be dragged into acknowledging that Iranian-backed groups have the freedom to make their own decisions.
- Second, it must respond in a way that inflicts real pain on Iran.
"Since the United States does not want to start a war with Iran, the U.S. military response to attacks on it is likely to be limited to IRGC facilities and personnel in Syria," he said.
Has U.S. deterrence achieved its goals?
In this context, Christian Coates Ulrichsen, an international affairs expert at the Baker Institute at Rice University in Texas, said that Washington seeks to restore the credibility of American deterrence, and also aims to send a message to Iran and its proxies that attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria will lead to a strong American response, according to his interview with Al Jazeera Net.
Matthew Wallen, chief executive of the American Security Project, a think tank focused on military affairs, said Iran is happy to benefit from and perpetuate regional instability because the stability of its foreign adversaries weakens its power.
Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, Whalen said that "Iran is likely to always seek a way to weaken or distract US forces in the region. Deterrence may not be as traditionally and realistic as conceived for the United States unless it is willing to directly threaten the stability of the Iranian regime, which I don't think Washington has a real interest in doing at this time."
"These strikes may be seen as punitive or an attempt to weaken Iran's ability to cause chaos, and Iran may feel that it can continue these attacks because it has the ability to do so with an acceptable loss rate. An unacceptable loss rate for Iran could escalate the conflict to a level that neither side is particularly interested in."
The USS Gerald R. Ford and USS Dwight D. Eisenhower have completed several days of military exercises in the eastern Mediterranean, involving nearly 11,<> U.S. military personnel, according to a Navy statement, which stressed the importance of "working to deter aggression and support our allies and partners."
The commander of the US Sixth Fleet, Admiral Thomas Ishi, noted the importance of military deterrence and exercises. "Operating dual strike groups with allies and partners in a dynamic environment demonstrates our ability to respond decisively quickly to any emergency. Our presence also sends a clear signal about our commitment to deterring aggression and promoting stability throughout the region."
As soon as the Israeli aggression began, Washington deployed the aircraft carriers "Gerald Ford" and "Dawit D. Eisenhower" in the eastern Mediterranean, in addition to more than 20 naval pieces, and reinforced the squadrons of the air force in the Middle East with more F-16 and F-35 fighter jets.