During the conflict with Azerbaijan, which ended in an agreement, on Monday evening, Armenia suffered from its military inferiority in the face of a better equipped army.
This small country in West Asia wrongly believed that Russia was going to protect it.
ANALYSIS
The text must put an end to six weeks of deadly fighting: Azerbaijan and Armenia signed under the aegis of Russia an agreement to end hostilities in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict which marks the Azerbaijani military victories.
This event is therefore experienced as a capitulation for the Armenian separatists.
Exhausted fighters
Moscow waited until the very last moment to stop the fighting, when the Armenians were beaten, unable to restore the situation, since the Azeri troops had just taken the key position of Shushi, this fortress city built in the Middle Ages on the mountain pass which dominates Stepanakert.
Nothing could therefore prevent them from capturing the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh which was at their feet.
The Armenian defeat would then have been total.
The last defenders of the separatist province were exhausted, wounded for the most part, without supplies or ammunition, since the Latchine corridor, a vital umbilical cord connecting them to Armenia, had been cut last week by the inexorable advance of the Azeris who had prepared very carefully for this war.
Azerbaijan's air superiority
Thanks to the billions of dollars generated by its gigantic oil fields, and with the unconditional support of Turkey, Baku has built a formidable army, equipped with the latest generation of military equipment, particularly the drones and planes which offered it air superiority from the start of the offensive.
When the Armenian forces, they expected only to replay the position war entrenched in the mountains they won in the 90s, but which is now totally outdated.
The latter were surprised, and suffered an untenable deluge of fire, often with phosphorus shells or cluster munitions, admittedly prohibited by international treaties, but terribly effective.
The Kremlin's Triple Aim
The Armenian forces believed that Russia would protect them since Armenia signed a defense agreement with Moscow.
And that was certainly their biggest strategic mistake, since Vladimir Putin always felt that the separatist province of Karabakh was not affected by this agreement.
In fact, the Kremlin was pursuing three objectives in this conflict.
The first was to regain a foothold as the only military interposition force in the region, which is now done with the deployment of 2,000 soldiers responsible for enforcing the ceasefire.
The second was not to break with Azerbaijan, an extremely important trade and energy partner that Russia does not want to let fall entirely into Turkey's arms.
This is the reason why Moscow let Baku reclaim most of Karabakh.
The third objective was to maintain its hold on Armenia, by demonstrating its dependence, hence this intervention
in extremis
to impose this capitulation, which, formally, saves Stepanakert, and will certainly cost Prime Minister Nikol his seat. Pachinian, whom Vladimir Putin has always considered to be far too independent.