US President Donald Trump's tweet gave the Sudanese transitional government, surrounded by a series of crises, a "kiss of life", because removing Sudan from the American list of states sponsoring terrorism may save its economy from collapse if the demands of openness to the world are met.
A former diplomatic official expressed this situation by saying, "Approaching the goal does not mean scoring a goal, and Sudan must now score this goal."
Trump said on Monday that he intends to remove Sudan from the list of state sponsors of terrorism if Sudan's transitional government deposits $ 335 million in compensation for American victims of terrorism and their families.
Makki al-Maghribi, a former media official at the Sudanese embassy in Washington, says that Trump's promise is a step forward, but it is not the end of the road, and we must hasten to declare victory so that there is no frustration, as happened when former US President Barack Obama lifted the sanctions in 2017.
Classification of institutions,
according to Al-Maghribi to Al-Jazeera Net, the step marks the beginning of a breakthrough in Sudan's dealings with financial institutions, and this can be classified according to 3 levels.
The first is the institutions that originally wanted to deal with Sudan, and were prejudiced by punishing it and would accelerate cooperation.
They are represented by agencies that conduct personal money transfers, with a ceiling of no more than $ 10,000, and benefit from percentages in exchange for transfers.
The second, according to al-Maghribi, is the commercial remittance institutions that provide services to companies, and they will not now deal with Sudan, but they will enter the heating phase, and are waiting for an American bank to announce the emergence of a banking relationship between Khartoum and Washington, which proves the seriousness of America and the guarantee of avoiding any sanctions on these institutions.
As for the third classification, it is represented by the international financial institutions, and Al-Maghrabi asserts that its journey is longer, because it is awaiting the completion of the process of lifting all sanctions by canceling the penal code in Congress.
Given the lack of precedents for countries leaving the list of terrorism, Al-Maghrabi added, "What happened so far is like beheading, and the feet must also be cut off because they can move."
However, Al-Maghrabi believes that there is a shortcut to the following international institutions by shortening the road to bilateral relations with America, and here the possibility of taking peace steps in the Middle East similar to what happened with the countries of the region appears.
Hamdok (right) upon receiving US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Khartoum, August 25 (French)
A turning point
, economist Mohamed Al-Nayer believes that Sudan did not benefit from Obama's decision to partially lift the sanctions in January 2017, and in October of the same year.
Al-Nayer told Al-Jazeera Net that Sudan's survival on the list prevented Western banks and companies from doing business with him, but Trump's move is now a major turning point for the Sudanese economy.
It is also mentioned that Sudanese banks have been dealing with only one correspondent out of hundreds of outlets, and Al-Nayer assures that removing Sudan from the list of countries sponsoring terrorism will facilitate transfers of export earnings and import funds as well as money from expatriates, patients and students.
According to the Nair, the move allows benefiting from the "HIPC" initiative for debt forgiveness, as Sudan's external debt has reached $ 60 billion, and the principal debt is 17 billion, and all that remains is delay penalties and interest, and now Sudan can be fully or partially absolved of its debts.
In addition, the economist notes that Khartoum can obtain financing on easy terms from international financing institutions.
On the other hand, he advises the government to be prepared to prepare the banks because there is a slow pace in restructuring them, raising their weak capital when they make dollars, or merging banks to form economic entities that can deal with the world's banks with a good credit level.
He warns the government not to spoil the joy of the Sudanese if it takes a decision to liberalize the fuel and the exchange rate, because it will put the citizen at that time under tremendous pressure.
Return to the world
Babiker Faisal, head of the Executive Office of the Federal Assembly, a researcher specializing in conflict resolution affairs, believes that removing Sudan from the list of terrorism paves the way for its political and economic return to the international community.
In spite of what the step provides for Sudan in terms of integration in international trade, debt relief, and the possibility of dealing with foreign banks and with direct international investments, Faisal sees the need to accomplish a large institutional work to benefit from the decision politically and economically.
He warns that Sudan inherited ruined institutions, a collapsed civil service, and a migration of talent, but this did not prevent the start of negotiations with the World Bank.
According to him, investment needs to create the internal environment by enacting incentive legislation, unifying the exchange rate, as well as completing the peace process.
Politically, Faisal tells Al-Jazeera Net that Sudan has been associated for about 27 years with support for terrorism, which forbade international participation, which has negatively affected the movement, movement and travel of Sudanese people for education and work.
Muhammad Al-Nayer: Removing Sudan from the list of terrorism gives it the benefit of the initiative for debt relief (Al-Jazeera Net)
The congressional trap
While Mekki al-Maghribi praised the government's performance in international relations, and the possibility of benefiting from the exit from the blacklist politically and economically, he again warns of some traps.
And he asserts that there are a number of caveats, including a law passed by Congress last March regarding support for civilian rule in Sudan.
According to Al-Maghribi, the law stipulates that the transitional period in Sudan is 3 years, contains a chapter on Penal Code No. 12, and provides for the extension of the transitional period to 4 years.
And in accordance with the Juba agreement with the armed movements signed this month, the extension has no place to be expressed in this law.
Al-Maghrabi also warns that the Juba negotiations have not been completed through an American mediator or an international institution. Therefore, Sudan faces two options. Either it goes a long way with America by amending this law, or elections are held on time.
Deprivation decades
US sanctions have deprived Sudan of about 3 decades of technology and spare parts needed to develop and qualify the air, sea and railway sector, as stated by Sudanese Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdok in his speech following Trump's tweet.
According to an official in the Chambers of Industry who spoke to Al Jazeera Net, the US sanctions put more than 100 Sudanese companies on the blacklist.
He says that the normalization of relations with the United States will revive the industrial sector, especially the food, chemical, pharmaceutical, printing, communications and textile industries, which have a production capacity of 300,000 tons, spinning (59,000 tons), and hides (15 million pieces of sheep and goat skins and 3 million pieces of cowhide) ).
Washington has included Sudan in the list of states sponsoring terrorism since 1993 and has subjected it to comprehensive economic sanctions since 1997.