The leveling path is filled with thorns

Obstacles impeding consensus on arrangements for political transition in Libya

  • Haftar and Al-Sarraj ... a growing state of mistrust.

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  • Aqila Saleh .. Searching for a political solution to the crisis.

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  • Skhirat talks brought Libya into successive crises.

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The recent political developments in Libya are accelerating, on top of which is the re-push of the political process with unprecedented regional and international support, not to mention the UN sponsorship, by trying to create an opportunity for the Libyan parties to exchange ideas and visions about the future of the political process.

In light of this, the expected announcement by the head of the reconciliation government, Fayez al-Sarraj, on September 16, of his desire to resign and hand over his responsibilities to the executive authority that will emerge from the dialogue committee, by the end of next October.

Al-Sarraj also announced its support for the Libyan consultations under the auspices of the United Nations.

These developments raise a fundamental question regarding the ability of the current relative progress to inaugurate a new political stage that could lead to the completion of a successful transition process.

Theses of the parties

This month of September witnessed a state of activity related to bringing the political solution back to the Libyan scene, whether through the Bouznika talks in Morocco, or through the Geneva meetings.

The most prominent theses related to the transitional phase can be addressed as follows:

1- Institutional restructuring

The recent discussions focused on the necessity to create a preparatory phase for a comprehensive solution, by preparing the current environment for holding elections within a year and a half, and on the basis of agreed constitutional rules.

There is also agreement on the need to restructure the executive authority to form a presidential council, and to choose the members of the Presidency Council and the head of government by consensus.

2- Overcoming regional conflict

Likewise, there is agreement on the need for there to be consideration of geographical diversity in the distribution of sovereign positions, in an attempt to deviate from the attempts to perpetuate the regional conflict, especially since Libya is currently divided between East and West, in the presence of two governments: (the reconciliation government and the interim government) And two parliaments: (the parliament of Tobruk and the parliament of Tripoli), in addition to the presence of a national army closer to the regular armies in the east in the face of armed structures in the west, based mainly on a group of militias and foreign mercenaries.

3- Equitable distribution of powers

The ongoing discussions refer to the distribution of powers among the three regions of Libya, so that no region combines more than one presidency of the three authorities included in the Skhirat Agreement, which include: the Presidential Council, the House of Representatives, and the Council of Ministers, provided that the ministers are distributed between Tripoli, Cyrenaica and Fezzan, with justice Distribution of positions related to the six sovereign positions.

4- Exit from Tripoli

There are suggestions that Sirte, as it may become a demilitarized city, will be the seat of government during the next stage, which means the relative ability to lose the Tripoli militias, one of its most prominent strengths, as it controls the capital and the headquarters of the governing institutions.

5- Introducing a comprehensive amnesty

One of the most prominent themes discussed in the recent talks related to the Libyan crisis was the national reconciliation and general amnesty, which could represent a back door through which the elements that have been involved in acts of violence over the past decade can get away with it, headed by the militia leaders, especially since Most of them are looking for a foothold in the transition phase.

Fundamental difficulties

In the face of this tangible relative progress in order to achieve a successful breakthrough in the complex political process in Libya, there are many challenges that could hinder this, which can be addressed as follows:

Reproduce the same faces

Most of the weights indicate the possibility that the Interior Minister of Al-Wefaq, "Fathi Bashagha", will become the head of the next Libyan government. Bashagha, affiliated with Misrata, is considered one of the most prominent controllers of the militias in western Libya, and his occupation of the most prominent government position would provoke negative repercussions, especially in Tripoli, In light of the deep differences between the militias of the capital and the militias of Misrata, the man is also largely loyal to Turkey and Qatar, and his presence at the top of the government raises questions about his ability to deal in accordance with national interests.

Likewise, there is ongoing competition in western Libya, of which “Bashagha” is considered a part, as the head of the Supreme Council of State, Khaled al-Mishri, who is supported by the Libyan “Brotherhood”, as well as from Turkey, aspires not to get out of the political equation, in addition to the aspirations of leaders Other military personnel, as a report published by the Africa Intelligence website, on September 7, 2020, indicated that “Osama al-Juwaili, the commander of the Western Military Region of the Government of National Accord, is trying to obtain external support. He paid a secret visit to Paris on September 3 and 4, 2020, to conduct A series of talks with French officials, along with his visit to Washington, and that despite its role in fending off the Libyan National Army and its defense of Tripoli, it remains largely marginalized politically.

The role of "Haftar"

There is a clear tendency to ignore the role of the commander of the Libyan National Army, Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, by representatives of the West of Libya, and he is receiving support from the UN mission, which may represent a major problem in political consensuses during the next stage, especially as "Haftar" leads the army. The only one inside Libya, and he has great support in the east of the country.

Despite speculation regarding the possibility that the advisor, "Aqila Saleh", the speaker of the Libyan Parliament, will be the next president of the Presidency Council of the Government of National Accord, the issue of excluding "Haftar" may constitute a great dilemma, especially if it includes any consensuses of the process of integrating armed militias in western Libya into the army My system is unified in Libya.

• Turkish political penetration

The arrival of some militia leaders in the West to power would represent an opportunity for Turkey to strengthen its military, political and even economic influence in Libya, as well as an attempt to legitimize the agreements signed since November 2019 until now, which are mostly agreements that have been rejected by many actors. Politicians in Libya, along with regional and international rejection.

Perhaps the most prominent of these agreements is the maritime agreement between the Government of National Accord and Turkey, which violates international law, and received great American, European, and even regional rejection.

• Consensus on a demilitarized zone

The rationale for making Sirte a demilitarized zone, which is an American proposal supported by Turkey in the first place, remains for the LNA to lose one of its most prominent strengths, which is its control over the oil crescent area.

Likewise, the head of the Libyan Parliament, Counselor, Aqila Saleh, despite his initiative for a ceasefire last August, this initiative did not include any talk about a demilitarized zone in Sirte.

Despite the current discussions heading towards transforming Sirte into a new capital, by welcoming the various political institutions;

However, so far, no statements have emerged from the National Army towards accepting the exit of its forces from Sirte.

• Approval of a new constitution

Not all the ongoing discussions deviate from the Skhirat Agreement, signed in December 2015, which is an agreement whose loopholes have formed a major part of the current political crisis, and therefore there is a challenge related to the ability of the Libyan parties to agree on a new constitutional framework, inaugurating a new political stage. Any existing differences in the foreseeable future, with consensus on a transitional phase, would prolong that phase, as happened in previous stages, as Libya, from 2010 until now, has not witnessed political agreement on a new constitution.

Political openness

There is a case of political openness in the current Libyan scene, and it is mainly due to the realization of the two main parties to the conflict - as well as some external parties, especially Turkey - the futility of the military solution, and the high cost of the conflict with its current data. However, agreement on some contentious issues, finally, requires Basically, it is necessary to address the existing challenges, in order to inaugurate a political phase capable of restoring security and stability anew, instead of reproducing the recent past with all its negative aspects.

The recent talks focused on the necessity to create a preparatory stage for a comprehensive solution, by preparing the current environment for holding elections within a period not exceeding a year and a half, and on the basis of agreed constitutional rules.

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