Yellow vests: "The movement hardly exists any more"

ANALYSIS

The "yellow vests" made their comeback on Saturday, with little mobilization.

They were 6,000 marching in France, including 2,500 in Paris, according to figures from the Ministry of the Interior.

After many demonstrations every Saturday, is the popular movement, launched in November 2018, disappearing?

"The movement, which existed through its presence in the street, practically no longer exists", decrypts Jérôme Sainte-Marie, political scientist and president of the research and consultancy firm Polling Vox, on Europe 1. 

The temptation to converge struggles 

"We are coming out of six months when there were no possible mobilizations, and if you are looking for the last major mobilization of" yellow vests ", I think we have to go back to May 1, 2019, so it has been a very long time since movement has practically disappeared in the streets ", continues the political scientist who explains this phenomenon by a desire for convergence of struggles.

"I believe that there are several causes for this, including a form of 'left-handedness' of its spokespersons who wanted to practice a form of convergence of struggles. They had also joined in the mobilization around it. 'Adama Traore. And this temptation to converge has ended in disaster. "

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According to an Ifop study revealed by

 dimancyhe matin, only 10% of those questioned still feel "yellow vests", or nine points less than last year.

On the other hand, they are still 41% not to feel "yellow vests" but to support them.

"The more you have the feeling of being at the bottom of society, the more you really are by your income or by your social situation, and the more you always identify with the yellow vests", analyzes Jérôme Sainte-Marie.

Repression and the coronavirus demobilize 

However, according to the figures of previous mobilizations, this support is no longer reflected on the pavement.

According to the political scientist, there are several reasons for this, including a form of repression.

"It has a cost to demonstrate, you must first access the places where you demonstrate," he says.

"There have been many arrests, it is dissuasive."

Another factor of demobilization: the coronavirus.

"With the Covid-19, a lot of things have changed. On the one hand, the train of reforms pushed by Emmanuel Macron was interrupted. And then the social woes of traders, craftsmen, all these poor workers in the private sector who identified with the yellow vests have not diminished, they have even increased, but they now have a cause external to politics ", explains Jérôme Sainte-Marie.

"The worsening economic situation exonerates the government in a way from being the perpetrator." 

Bigard or Raoult? 

The mobilization on Saturday was marked by the presence of Jean-Marie Bigard, heckled and exfiltrated from the demonstration after dissociating himself from the words of Jérôme Rodrigues, historical figure of the movement.

The comedian made a foray into the political landscape during the coronavirus epidemic, declaring himself ready to be a candidate for the next presidential election in 2022. An option that appeals to the "yellow vests"?

According to the Ifop study, only 32% of individuals who feel they belong to the movement say they are ready to vote for it.

"We have a good part of the French who do not wish for the moment the duel which seems most likely in the second round which is the Macron-Le Pen duel and therefore people are looking for alternative solutions", nuance Jérôme Sainte-Marie.

"The Bigard phenomenon has been exaggerated."

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On the other hand, the figure of Professor Didier Raoult, ardent defender of chloroquine treatments to fight the coronavirus, is attractive.

"Didier Raoult is an element of the elite who becomes a populist leader, or who could become," analyzes the political scientist.

An objective and scientific elite that could compete with "political, economic or media elites", he continues.