Health context, absence of leaders, economic crisis… The sociologist Jean-François Amadieu estimates on Europe 1 that the relatively low number of demonstrators "yellow vests" in the streets of several large French cities, Saturday, is the result of several phenomena which s 'accumulate.

ANALYSIS

It is a return to school without any real brilliance for the "yellow vests".

They were 6,000 to have gathered on Saturday across France, including 2,500 in Paris.

A few clashes broke out and 147 people were taken into police custody.

For Jean-François Amadieu, professor at the University of Paris Panthéon-Sorbonne and specialist in social movements, this is the confirmation of a stagnation of the movement, caused by several phenomena.

A real "rejection" of leaders

First of all, there is the “Covid-19 effect” which is, in the eyes of the sociologist, “clear”.

"Anyway, the levels of participation in the movement on Saturday are similar to what we have already observed" during previous demonstrations, he explains.

The levels of mobilization of the latest "acts" are indeed very far from the first Saturday of the rally, November 17, 2018. That day, the discontented were more than 282,000 throughout France.

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But there is another factor which participates in "weakening" the movement: "As soon as spokespersons or leaders seem to impose themselves and want to engage politically, there is a sort of rejection by a whole part of the movement. base of 'yellow vests' ", underlines Jean-François Amadieu.

"We saw it with the Jean-Marie Bigard episode", targeted and exfiltrated from the mobilization in the morning, against a backdrop of strong tensions with a figure of the movement, Jérôme Rodrigues.

"Very strong deterioration" of employment

"In addition, there is the question of the very strong deterioration of the situation on the employment front", continues the academic.

"It can be paradoxical, but we have to realize that when people are worried about their jobs, it is not the best time to mobilize."

These different factors lead Jean-François Amadieu to think that "there is no rebound which appears and which can appear for this movement".

Does this mean, however, that social protest will be less strong and assertive than in the fall of 2018 and 2019?