Discussions are raging between Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Jared Kushner, a senior adviser to US President Donald Trump, who is seeking to complete the "normalization deal with Israel" before the presidential elections in November.

Although normalizing relations and achieving "peace" between Tel Aviv and Abu Dhabi, according to Israeli analysts, is a "pioneering step" that would "change awareness" in the Middle East towards Israel, but it is not sufficient to prove the validity and efficacy of a peace plan between the Palestinians and the Israelis described as "" The Deal of the Century - proposed by Trump - without Saudi Arabia joining.

In an effort to continue the normalization train, the Trump administration - in coordination with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu - is working intensively between several countries in the Middle East, to agree to sign normalization agreements with Tel Aviv, with the aim of strengthening the Israeli-Emirati alliance.

To achieve this, Washington is betting on the penetration of the Saudi position, which announced the adoption of the Palestinian position and the Arab Peace Initiative.

It appears that Washington - as well as Tel Aviv - is convinced that if the Saudi position is breached and pushed for its truce position on normalization, this will allow many Arab and Islamic countries to follow in the footsteps of the Emirates and sign normalization agreements with Israel.

Opening Saudi airspace to global air traffic, to and from Ben Gurion Airport, appeared to be the first step of overt normalization between Tel Aviv and Riyadh.

Netanyahu reviews the route of the "El" plane that carried the normalization delegation to the Emirates and flew over Saudi airspace (Al-Jazeera)

Cautious normalization

The Arab and Middle East affairs analyst in the Israeli newspaper "Haaretz", Zvi Barel, believes that Saudi Arabia, despite opening its airspace to all international airlines - without mentioning the word Israel - is still cautious about normalizing relations, so that official and public normalization will depend on the political support that Saudi Arabia will receive from the states. United.

According to Barel, because of the approaching date of the US presidential election, Trump "is striving to hint at an impressive political achievement that he can employ in the election campaign, after the collapse of most of his political initiatives, including the deal of the century," noting that Trump's various initiatives "caused deep concern among All Parties".

In a race against time, Kushner continues his visits and contacts with Riyadh in an effort to announce an Israeli-Saudi normalization under American auspices, similar to the Emirati model, but the return that the kingdom will receive in return for this step is still unknown.

From the point of view of the Israeli analyst himself, the Saudi crown prince is facing a number of challenges since the assassination of his compatriot journalist Jamal Khashoggi, nearly two years ago, when bin Salman became a persona non grata to the American public opinion and Congress.

The American-Israeli delegation headed by Kushner meets with the UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Anwar Gargash (Al Jazeera)

Competition and bargaining

During this period, the Israeli analyst clarifies, bin Salman did not visit Washington, and his interests are represented by his brother Prince Khaled, who was ambassador to Washington until 2019, then he was appointed deputy defense minister and head of the Military Industry Authority.

The Israeli analyst pointed out that the investigations against bin Salman regarding the assassination of Khashoggi have not yet ended, at a time when Congress banned arms sales to Riyadh, a decision that the President canceled.

Bariel asserts that the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia is in dire need to bring about a change that will restore his status and status, after his personal friend, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed began competing with him with his success in forming a new Middle East policy, and as an Arab figure closer to Trump.

"Peace with Israel may be a pioneering step against Washington, but compared to the Emirates, the situation of Saudi Arabia is more complicated," the Israeli analyst said.

But he adds, "The bargaining chips that bin Salman possesses are limited at the moment, as he cannot be sure that Trump will remain two presidents and he must take into account that Joe Biden may be probably the next president of the United States, knowing that Democratic Party rule is not exactly Ben's dream." Salman ".

The Israeli analyst says that this fact "may play in favor of advancing Saudi normalization with Israel, whether Trump is president for a second term or if his opponent wins, Israel may pave the way to support relations between bin Salman and Washington."

Therefore, the Israeli analyst believes that "opening the Saudi airspace to Israeli and other aircraft is much more than just throwing some crumbs, and showing Saudi support for the normalization agreement between Israel and the UAE. Rather, it is seen as a down payment for what bin Salman wants to get from Trump."

The bargaining chips owned by bin Salman are limited at the moment (Reuters)

Breakthrough and conviction

Despite the importance of Saudi Arabia opening its airspace to normalizing aviation, the Israeli expert on Arab affairs and Islamic countries, Yoni Ben Menachem, does not consider it a breach of the Saudi declared position on the Palestinian issue, and its re-adoption of the Arab initiative as a pillar of peace with Israel on the basis of two states for two peoples.

The Israeli expert explained that Saudi Arabia, which is considered an important country and leads the Sunni camp, has had secret relations with Israel for a long time, but "is afraid to bring them out into the open through official normalization at this stage."

Therefore, it is very important - Bin Menachem stresses - that the United States and Israel breach the traditional Saudi position and persuade Bin Salman, in order to sign a normalization agreement with Israel.

The Israeli expert asserts that such a step will create a great "domino effect" in the Middle East, and that Arab countries will rush to join Saudi Arabia and sign normalization agreements with Israel.

Netanyahu and Trump at the White House when the "Deal of the Century" is announced

Motives and concerns

But Ben Menachem wonders what happened behind the scenes?

Why did bin Salman stop and did not follow the UAE, whose crown prince had shown unprecedented political courage, and agreed to publicly announce the realization of the normalization agreement with Israel?

In answer to these questions, the Israeli expert attributed this to bin Salman's fear of internal unrest in Saudi Arabia if he took such a step, and his fears that Qatar and Iran would work against Riyadh to thwart the normalization agreement with Tel Aviv.

It is believed that penetrating the Saudi position is a difficult but very important task, and it is likely that the secret information in the possession of the US intelligence and Trump, who is very close to the royal palace in Riyadh, regarding the investigation into the assassination of Khashoggi, may be the reason for forming pressure in the future on bin Salman to agree to the normalization of relations with Israel. This is done in stages and gradual steps.