The Swedish contingency effort announced by the Armed Forces on Monday evening must be seen against the background of what happened in the spring of 2013 when Russian bombers practiced attacks on Sweden.

It was named "Russian Easter" because Sweden did not get its fighter flight on time. It was NATO countries that sent fighter jets instead.

- We were taken to bed during the Russian Easter 2013, which was very embarrassing and probably wants to show that it will not happen again, says research leader Robert Dalsjö at the Swedish Defense Research Agency (FOI).

Russian strategic bomber Tupolev Tu-22 and Tu-160 are shown ahead of the annual "victory day" in Moscow. Photo: Epa, Maxim Shipenkov 4 May 2020

It was on Tuesday that Dagens Nyheter revealed that a Russian military exercise with three large landing craft that passed east of Gotland is the reason why Sweden has increased its military readiness.

Now Robert Dalsjö talks about further Russian troop movements that are taking place due to the development in Belarus.

- I think that this landing exercise came as a surprise as well as some of the troop movements that have been reported on the Russian side. It is above all about domestic troops and units that could be used to defeat the popular resistance in Belarus, says Robert Dalsjö.

A Russian landing craft Petr Morgunov was shown at the annual naval parade in St. Petersburg on July 26, 2020. Photo: Kremlin

National Guard and Special Police

He states that the troop movements include the riot police Omon and the National Guard.

- If a popular revolution were to take place there so that the pro-Russian ruler fell and someone came in instead, perhaps a pro-Europe, something like what happened in Ukraine in 2014, then the Kremlin feels that this threatens their position of power.

According to Dalsjö, the Kremlin has probably been considering for several weeks how to act.

- It is in this context that Russia chooses to rattle with weapons. It shows that "we are big and powerful, and should we choose to enter Belarus (Belarus), you should stay away and not put your fingers in it."

President Alexander Lukashenko armed with Kalashnikov automatic rifle at the "Freedom Palace" in Minsk. The picture is distributed by the state television in Belarus on August 24, 2020. Photo: Belarusian state television via AP

Vasallstat

Russia regards Belarus as a subordinate to Russian interests - a vassal state, according to Dalsjö.

- It could be a very serious crisis if Russia entered Belarus, with or without Lukashenko's blessing, it could be a very serious crisis.

Russia wants to prevent other countries from intervening, Dalsjö says.

- If Russia strikes in Belarus and, for example, Lithuania or Poland helps dissidents to flee, it could be seen as a hostile act by Russia. Then it is important to mark in advance: "Here we are the ones who have resources, so do not try anything".