Between economic, political and social crises, what future for Lebanon?

Between tears and cries of anger, hundreds of Lebanese gathered on Tuesday, August 11, near the ruins of the port of Beirut. Beyond the tribute to the victims of the explosion, which devastated a large part of the city, left at least 171 dead and 6,000 wounded, it was also the ruling class that they attacked . "We will not mourn, we will not wear black before having buried the power," said a speaker in front of the crowd.

Prime Minister Hassan Diab's announcement on Monday of the resignation of the entire government was not enough to allay the anger of the demonstrators, who for months denounced the endemic corruption at all levels of the state and the serious economic crisis, which hit Lebanon in 2019. "My brother died because of the negligence of the State, because of corruption", coward to AFP Ali Nourredine, holding the portrait of Ayman, 27 years old, a soldier who was in the port. "There will be a change when the whole regime changes."

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Hurry up

Prime Minister Hassan Diab, an academic himself, admitted having had his hands tied upon taking office on January 21 with a government of technocrats, succeeding Saad Hariri, also pushed to resign by the demonstrations. “I had said before that corruption is entrenched at all levels of state but I have found that corruption is stronger than state. We are responding to the people's desire for real change in the face of corruption Destructive. Faced with this reality, we take a step back to stand by the side of the people, in order to fight with them this battle for change ", explained Hassan Diab.

He will have to continue to manage current affairs until President Michel Aoun, who has remained very silent since Monday, proposes a new head of government. A process, in view of the multi-confessional system characteristic of Lebanon and the necessary negotiations with Parliament, which may take a long time. "No prime minister, no government from the same political class will be able to carry out reform, deplores Nadim Houry, director of the Arab Reform Initiative think tank. It is not a problem of character, but of system. The political class does not. has not said its last word, but what is clear is that it will fail. And we will lose another six months, a year, an irreplaceable time given the crisis in Lebanon, and we will not be further ahead. "

Lebanon: what future for the country after the resignation of Hassan Diab's government?

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But time is running out. The Lebanese population is suffering from the drastic increase in the cost of living, due to a historic depreciation of the Lebanese pound, hyperinflation and draconian banking restrictions, to which has been added the Covid-19 epidemic. Nearly 300,000 people, including 80,000 children, are now homeless after the destruction of their homes by the explosion, and the amount of damage caused could rise to 15 billion dollars, according to the governor of Beirut. Reconstruction could take years.

More than half of Beirut's hospitals, including three of the largest, are "out of service," said Richard Brennan, regional director of emergencies at the World Health Organization (WHO) on Wednesday.

"Political victims"

Overwhelmed, the demonstrators and part of the opposition demand the departure of the entire ruling class, almost unchanged for decades, including prominent figures in place since the end of the civil war in 1990. "In fact, the real power is in the hands of six or seven people representing community leaders, who have proven that they do not want to let go, "says Sibylle Rizk, from the NGO Kulluna Irada, activist for political reform in Lebanon.

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The deputy of Kataëb (the Lebanese Phalanges) Nadim Gemayel, who gave up his seat with the two other elected members of the party in the Parliament, after the explosion of August 4, to denounce the government negligence, charges Hezbollah. The Shiite party, an ally of President Aoun, dominates Lebanese politics and was instrumental in forming Hassan Diab's government. "Hezbollah is largely responsible for the total imbalance that agitates Lebanon. It is he who takes the major decisions of the state. (…) In return for having the sovereignty of the country, it gives its total cover [to the political class] to fuel corruption, "he says. For him, the future of Lebanon depends on a great political renewal, "or the collapse is certain. We are not humanitarian victims, we are political victims. If we do not change our political problem, we will not be able to recover in the long term ".

Accused also by part of the Lebanese media and demonstrators of being the owner of a weapons warehouse in the port of Beirut, where, according to the authorities, 2,750 tons of ammonium nitrate were stored, Hezbollah "denied categorically "and called for" the unity and solidarity "of the Lebanese.

Public authorities' inertia

The latter, used for a long time to rely only on themselves, have been clearing away the rubble for a week, helping the poorest and those in need faced with the inertia of the public authorities. Local and international NGOs have also mobilized to provide medical aid and food. According to independent MP Paula Yacoubian, who has also resigned, the government did not take care of its citizens before her resignation, leaving the responsibility to civil society and international donations. "The aftermath of the disaster has shown who can truly serve and lead this nation. These are the people we should choose from," she told The New York Times.

These wonderful ladies just turned up at our door asking to help us clean up the wreckage of our apartment. They've come from Saida in south #Lebanon to help, going house to house like so many others volunteers working together across #Beirut in the absence of any govt support. pic.twitter.com/oCa3QjU43X

For Sibylle Rizk, only popular pressure, which has already brought down two governments - that of Saad Hariri in November 2019 and that of Hassan Diab - will be able to move the lines and form a credible alternative. "This anger, to turn into a political project, must be catalyzed around a new offer. For too long, the country has been subjected to foreign influences, the Lebanese are divided along community fault lines, they have been encouraged to be afraid of each other. This time, a real alternation must be created on the basis of links between the Lebanese. "

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