DECRYPTION
Lebanon has somehow experienced, Tuesday evening, the catastrophe of too many: the devastating explosions in the port of Beirut accelerate the fall of the country, once nicknamed "the Switzerland of the Middle East", into the economic abyss towards which it was already heading for quite some time. And nothing says that the reconstruction of the country of the Cedars will be done quickly, so much the weaknesses of the industry, the corruption and the political rifts gnaw this territory of 5.5 million inhabitants.
Poverty rate at 45%
At first, the tragedy of Tuesday and the destruction of the port may have serious consequences on the supply of flour for the population. This is not a detail, because almost half of the population (45%) lives below the poverty line, with 22% of the Lebanese in a state of "absolute poverty". Half a million children suffer from malnutrition.
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The economic indicators are in the red: an astronomical public debt which reaches 183% of the gross domestic product (GDP), a currency which is worth nothing and a glaring shortage of liquidity, with the consequences which one imagines on the population.
The unemployment rate is currently 35% and inflation is close to 100%. Logically, purchasing power collapsed last fall, particularly hitting the middle class, which we find today in the queues of food aid centers.
A "long and complicated" path
How will such a weakened country be able to recover from such a catastrophe? "To rebuild, we need materials that we lack, because there is no liquidity", laments Fouad Zmokhol, president of the Gathering of Lebanese leaders and business leaders in the world and guest of Europe 1, Wednesday morning. "Our banking sector, which financed the reconstruction, is no longer there, like the productive sector. Businesses open every other day." For him, the return to prosperity will be "long and complicated".
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Meanwhile, while allied countries have assured the government of their humanitarian and material support, the billions of dollars in aid offered by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) remain stuck. Negotiations are indeed skidding with the banking lobby, which holds a large part of the Lebanese public debt. This sector still refuses to admit its losses, estimated at 53 billion dollars, or the equivalent of the GDP.