New York (AFP)

After plummeting airline ticket sales in the spring, US airlines were hoping to see demand pick up but the recent spike in Covid-19 cases puts them in doubt and they are bracing for a massive wave of layoffs in the fall .

Not surprisingly, they saw their revenues plummet in the second quarter: -86% at American Airlines, -88% at Delta, -87% at United Airlines, -83% at Southwest.

As the virus spread, local authorities imposed containment measures drastically limiting travel.

Potential customers were also reluctant to stay in an enclosed space for several hours, especially since the wearing of masks remained uncertain for a certain time in the cabins.

The big companies have since generalized the requirement to cover his face during flights and some, like Delta and Southwest, are blocking the middle seats.

All of them observed a recovery in demand in May and June and were waiting with hope for the summer vacation, but they could only see a new halt in July with the rise in Covid-19 cases in the United States. .

"Demand for air travel is expected to remain low until a vaccine or treatment is available to combat the cases and spread of Covid-10," Southwest CEO Gary Kelly said Thursday.

"Given the combined effects of the pandemic and the ensuing global economic crisis, we continue to believe that it will be more than two years before we can see a lasting recovery," said Ed Bastian, CEO of Delta Air Lines. , mid-July.

United, for their part, expect their revenues to eventually stabilize at half of what they were in 2019, until a vaccine is widely distributed. The company has not put forward any date in this regard.

About 45% of those questioned in a survey conducted by the Raymond James firm said they wanted to wait until 2021 to take the plane for pleasure, and 70% for work.

- Business travel -

Business travel is in fact particularly affected.

"We're not going to have 180,000 people going to the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas next January like last year," United CEO Scott Kirby noted on Wednesday.

"Companies are not going to send their top 500 salespeople at the end of the year for a big party and celebration until the pandemic is over," he added.

The rating agency SP Global Ratings for its part expects a "slow and irregular recovery (in traffic) which should continue in 2021".

Boeing boss David Calhoun caused panic in May when he warned that a major US airline was likely to go bankrupt, while refraining from giving a name.

So far, the four largest companies have suffered more than $ 10 billion in losses in three months: $ 5.7 billion for Delta, $ 2.1 billion for American, 1.6 billion for United and 915 million for Southwest.

But they are stepping up initiatives to limit losses and raise as much funds as possible, for example by mortgaging their loyalty program, the time to let the bulk of the health crisis pass.

The rate at which they burn cash each day (cash burn) slowed as the quarter progressed. At Delta, it fell by 70% in June compared to March to reach $ 27 million per day. At American it went from about 100 million a day in April to 30 million in March.

This does not prevent companies from preparing for massive layoffs as soon as they are entitled to it, since in exchange for a total envelope of $ 25 billion in government aid, they have committed not to fire. no one until September 31.

American Airlines has warned it could fire up to 25,000 people and United Airlines up to 36,000 people. Departure plans may be less important if some employees decide to leave voluntarily by then.

At Southwest, 16,900 of the 60,000 employees have already decided to leave the company.

© 2020 AFP