Pristina and Belgrade will hold talks this week. This was previously reported by the President of Serbia, Alexander Vucic. As the politician wrote on his Instagram page, a new round of negotiations will take place on Thursday, July 16. The day before, the parties agreed on topics to be raised this week in Brussels. Negotiations will be held with the participation of the Serbian President and Prime Minister of the unrecognized Kosovo Avdullah Hoti.

The dialogue under the auspices of the European Union will resume after a months-long break. As the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borell, said during a video conference on July 12, Brussels advocates the signing of a comprehensive final legally binding agreement between Belgrade and Pristina on normalizing relations.

  • Joseph Borell
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  • © Virginia Mayo / Pool

“Such an agreement is extremely important for creating a better future for the people of Kosovo and Serbia, it is extremely important for their accession to the EU and for the security and stability of the entire region. All this is also extremely important for the EU itself, ”says Joseph Borrell in a statement.

According to the EU Special Representative for the dialogue between Pristina and Belgrade, Miroslav Lajcak, the dialogue on "comprehensive normalization" of the relations between the parties resumed after a break of 20 months. 

European tour

Last week, Serbian leader Alexander Vucic began a multi-day trip to the European Union. The politician called it the struggle for the interests of Serbia on the Kosovo problem. On July 9, Vučić met with French counterpart Emmanuel Macron, on July 10, an online summit of the leadership of the European Union, Germany, France, Serbia and the self-proclaimed Kosovo took place.

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  • © Djordje Kojadinovic

Recall that the achievement of peace between Pristina and Belgrade remains a key condition for the adoption of Serbia into the European Union, therefore, Brussels is actively involved in organizing the dialogue.

At the same time, Vučić does not see any prospects for resolving the conflict between the parties, since the previously proposed draft of delimiting the areas of residence of Serbs and Albanians in Kosovo has not been approved by either Serbian society or the European Union.

“I have not heard any other proposal. And the fact that Serbia recognizes the independence of Kosovo and the Serbs in Kosovo will not get anything, forget it, ”Vučić told reporters before going to the EU.

It should be noted that the resumption of the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina under the auspices of the EU was preceded by Serbian-Russian negotiations. On June 18, the Serbian capital was visited by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. As the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry stated then, Moscow proceeds from the fact that the EU, which has the mandate of the UN General Assembly to mediate in the negotiations between Belgrade and Pristina, should not self-relieve itself from fulfilling its duties.

In turn, on June 25, the Serbian president paid a visit to Moscow, where he held talks with Russian leader Vladimir Putin. Commenting on the results of the meeting with journalists, Russian President’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted that any decision on the situation in the Balkans should be based on the principle of respect for Serbia.

Recall that the dialogue between Serbia and partially recognized Kosovo ceased at the end of 2018 amid a serious aggravation of the situation in the region. Then the Kosovo authorities imposed trade duties in the amount of 100% against Serbia. In response, Alexander Vucic said that Belgrade did not intend to negotiate under such conditions. In addition, the Serbian leader recalled that Pristina had not fulfilled the 2013 agreement on the establishment of Serbian municipalities.  

Another event that triggered tensions in the region was the invasion of the Kosovo special forces in the area controlled by the Serbian side of the Ghazivode hydroelectric station. In response to this step of Kosovo, the Serbian authorities were forced to bring the army into full combat readiness.

  • Serviceman of the Army of Serbia
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  • © Anatoly Medved

The bandwagon for the USA

In 2020, Washington announced its desire to act as a key mediator in the Balkan negotiations. So, in mid-June, the American publication The Wall Street Journal reported that the US president had invited Serbian and Kosovo leaders to Washington for talks. Journalists referred to anonymous sources in the White House, but soon this information was officially confirmed on both sides.

This was written on Twitter by the special representative of the US President at the talks between Belgrade and Pristina, Richard Grenell. The diplomat announced a meeting of representatives of Pristina and Belgrade on June 27, negotiations were to take place on American territory.

However, this plan was not implemented, since the Hague Special Prosecutor's Office accused Kosovo president Hashima Tachi of killing and torturing civilians during the 1998-1999 military conflict.  

As Elena Guskova, head of the Center for the Study of the Modern Balkan Crisis of the Institute of Slavic Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted in an interview with RT, inviting Albanian and Serbian leaders for negotiations in the United States, the White House wanted to demonstrate to Europe that the Balkan conflict could not be resolved without American participation.

“The fact that negotiations on American territory fell through suits the European Union. Now the dialogue will return to the thumb of the negotiation process led by the EU. However, Washington will not reconcile with its defeat and will seek new forms of participation in the negotiation process, ”the expert said.

A similar point of view is shared by the specialist in the Balkans, associate professor of the Moscow School of Economics at Moscow State University Mikhail Lobanov.

“Washington and Brussels are pushing their elbows for the right to mediate in these negotiations. But the American approach is different from the European one: Washington will not stop at redrawing the borders, but this does not suit Brussels. Europe on time set up the US bandwagon in the form of an accusation against Hashim Thachi, thus eliminating American competitors, ”the expert said in a comment to RT.

Negotiation without negotiation

The accusation put forward by the Hague Special Prosecutor’s Office against the Kosovo leader weakens Pristina’s bargaining position, experts say. 

“Today, the situation in Kosovo is not the most favorable for negotiations, while Alexander Vučić initially felt quite confident, since his party had recently won the election. This means that the people of Serbia have delegated the right to negotiate to Vučić, ”explained Mikhail Lobanov.

However, recent protests that swept through Serbia have negatively affected negotiating positions and the Serbian leadership.

  • Belgrade protest against the spread of coronavirus infection COVID-19
  • Reuters
  • © Marko Djurica

“Obviously, against the background of mass protests, Vučić cannot make any unpopular decisions,” the expert added.

Although the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SPP) won the June 21 parliamentary election, gaining 60.65% of the vote, anti-government unrest has clouded the situation.

Recall that in early July, Serbia was seized by mass protests - the demonstrators were outraged by the decision of the authorities to reintroduce quarantine restrictions that were lifted on the eve of the elections. The authorities were forced to return the restrictions because of the repeated increase in the incidence of coronavirus in the country. 

Thus, both sides have to negotiate peace in rather difficult conditions, experts say.

“The Albanian side makes rather stringent demands - Pristina is seeking recognition of Kosovo. But this is not acceptable for Belgrade. Therefore, most likely, during the next round of negotiations, the issue of Kosovo’s independence will not be raised. The parties may pay attention to economic and security issues of the Serbian population, ”said Elena Guskova.

A similar point of view is shared by Mikhail Lobanov. According to the expert, the parties have to go through a multi-stage negotiation process before they can get closer to a peace agreement.

“Neither the Serbian nor the Kosovo leadership can make any major concessions, this would cause outrage in both Kosovo and Serbia. So far, the parties can only agree that Belgrade will not so actively hamper the recognition of Kosovo in international instances, and Pristina can, for example, give some guarantees to the Serbian population of Kosovo and Metohija. But for now - nothing more, ”the expert summed up.