Poland voted Sunday in a presidential election on the razor's edge, between an outgoing populist president and a europhile liberal who wants to restore ties with Brussels.
The result of this second round will be decisive for the future of the government of the conservative and nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, which its detractors accuse of reversing the democratic freedoms acquired three decades ago at the fall of communism.
Two candidates shoulder to shoulder
Supported by PiS, President Andrzej Duda faces the mayor of Warsaw, Rafal Trzaskowski, of the main centrist opposition party Civic Platform (PO), and the latest polls show equal chances for the two candidates.
The vote was to take place in May - at the time Andrzej Duda was leading the voting intentions - but it had to be postponed due to the pandemic caused by the new coronavirus. Support for Andrzej Duda has declined considerably since then, including due to the fallout from the epidemic, which has plunged Poland into its first recession since the fall of the communist regime. Experts say the outcome on Sunday could be so close that court challenges and protests may ensue.
Official results expected Monday morning
The polling stations opened at 5 a.m. GMT (7 a.m. Paris time) and must close at 7 p.m. (9 p.m. Paris time). An exit poll is planned soon after, with the first official results only expected for Monday morning.
The turnout was 24.73% around noon, a particularly high level, the Election Commission announced, suggesting that the pandemic has not deterred voters from going to the polls.
In the first round, on June 28, Duda came first with 43.5% of the vote and Rafal Trzaskowski second with 30.4%. Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy, stresses that Rafal Trzaskowski had to mobilize very disparate parts of the electorate against Andrzej Duda and believes that the victory will therefore probably go to the outgoing president, aAndrzej with a narrow margin.
"Trzaskowski proved to be a competent and eloquent candidate", but risks suffering from the "lack of clear support" on the part of the unsuccessful opposition candidates in the first round, judge Eurasia Group.
"Two visions of Poland"
Andrzej Duda has pledged to defend the popular social assistance put in place by the PiS and has made a polarizing campaign, attacking in particular the rights of LGBT people and rejecting the idea of compensation for Jewish property stolen by the Nazis and under the regime Communist.
"These elections are a confrontation of two visions of Poland, between white and red and the rainbow," said Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro, quoted on Friday by the PAP news agency, referring to the Polish national flag and the symbol used by the LGBT community.
Rafal Trzaskowski, for his part, is in favor of civil partnerships, including between people of the same sex. His decision to sign a statement of support for LGBT people last year prompted many regions in the rural east and the most conservative in the country to proclaim themselves "LGBT free areas". He also promised, if successful, to backtrack on controversial justice reforms that put Poland on a collision course with the rest of the European Union.
Wojciech, a 59-year-old construction worker, exits a polling station, says he voted for Duda because of his close ties to US President Donald Trump, "which means we can count on the United United to defend ourselves, "and" because I completely agree "with his promise to ban adoption for same-sex couples.
Masked voters
Other voters chose Trzaskowski with the hope of a return to better relations with the European Union. "It is important for us to have good cooperation with our European partners", explains the retired Danuta Lutecka, who also hopes that a change of president would lead to "less hatred and divisions" between Poles.
Viruses oblige, the voters appeared masked Sunday morning at the polling station of the district of Mokotov, in Warsaw, and, after having passed the hands with the disinfectant gel, used their own pen to vote.
"These elections will determine the fate of Poland for the foreseeable future," said Adam Strzembosz, former President of the Supreme Court and respected law professor. "Will it be dominated and completely subject to a political party, with all the consequences of a power of a dictatorial nature, or will we manage to stop this process?", He asked himself.
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