Sunday's election in the fifth most populous country in the EU is projected to be a nail-biter. The latest polls show a deadlock between the candidates: incumbent President Andrzej Duda, of the ruling party Law and Justice, and challenger Rafal Trzaskowski, of the Citizens Coalition, who is mayor of the capital Warsaw.

In the first round of elections, Trzaskowski received just over 30 percent of the vote, but can count on Sunday with the support of many who voted for other candidates.

Both candidates are chasing right-wing extremist votes

The voters who have so far seemed the most uncertain are those who in the first round voted for the right-wing candidate Bosak, from the Confederation Party - a party that shares Law and Justice's views on what is called value issues, that is, addressing immigration and LGBTQ rights, but on the other hand is closer to the Citizens' Coalition when it comes to economic policy and critical to the Law and justice welfare initiatives, such as the introduction of a child allowance of 500 zlotys (equivalent to SEK 1,200) or the reduction of retirement age.

Trzaskowski has since the first round two weeks ago tried to win over these voters by pressing precisely the common view on economic issues, but also by portraying themselves as more conservative. And when President Duda recently said that he wants to bring into the constitution that homosexuals should not be allowed to adopt, Trzaskowski replied that he also opposes gay adoptions.

Trzaskowski can still expect that the Poles who primarily protect everyone's equal value will cast his vote on him. As one person described it to me: "If the choice was between Duda and a dog, I would have voted for the dog".

Standing up for the rights of LGBT people

And even though Trazskowski has now chosen to downplay his liberal values, he has in any case not been angry with gays in the way President Duda has done. In fact, in his role as mayor, Trzaskowski has stepped in to stand up for gay rights by signing a declaration that Warzsawa should protect them. Something that in turn caused a backlash in many other of the country's municipalities that instead introduced what they call LGBTQ-free zones.

Even after the election, the right-wing Confederation can continue to exert great influence over Polish politics. If Liberal Trzaskowski wins the presidential post, he will have the power to stop legislation passed by the government and parliament. But that veto can be run over if three-fifths of Parliament wants it.

Law and justice after the parliamentary elections in October last year did not have enough parliamentarians to reach that bar. Therefore, some in Poland fear that the ruling party if Trzaskowski wins should turn to the even more radically conservative Confederation and policy will be adapted accordingly - something that would hardly make life better for neither LGBT people nor migrants and would certainly mean even more restrictions on human rights. .