• IMF, Italy last in the ranking: GDP -12.8% in 2020 and + 6.3% in 2021
  • Istat, exceptional decrease in GDP in the first quarter of 2020
  • Visco: uncertainty forecasts, well-constructed plan needed. GDP 2020 around -20%
  • ECB: record fall in GDP in Europe, the second quarter will be tougher

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10 July 2020 Fitch confirms Italy's rating at BBB-, having already cut it last April, bringing it to just one step above the junk level and aligning with Moody's rating ("Baa3", last step before the "junk" titles) . For its part, that of S&P is better ("Bbb" with negative outlook). The outlook remains stable, as Fitch experts believe that purchases of assets from the European Central Bank will facilitate Italy's tax response to the pandemic and ease the refinancing risks. 

"High debt and weak structural growth will continue to weigh on Italy's rating" says Fitch, stressing that "recent EU initiatives, including the recovery plan, could limit the expected deterioration of Italian public finances from 2021 ". Fitch then highlights how the Italian economy paid a heavy price because of the pandemic, even though with the end of the lockdown the government gradually took the first steps to help normalize the economy.  

During the summoned general states The government has debated structural reforms to strengthen medium-term growth, recalls Fitch, who says at the moment "it is unclear how much this comparison will translate into current economic policy. The divisions between the Democratic Party and the M5s on reforms and spending priorities - it is noted - have the potential to delay the implementation of a credible medium-term strategy. "

Recently Fitch has updated the estimates on Italian GDP downwards, forecasting that it will drop by 9 , 5% on average in 2020, while it will drop to + 4.4% in 2021. According to the rating agency's estimates, the debt-to-GDP ratio will reach 160% this year, above 156% of the April estimates, and it will remain so beyond 2024. The next 'exams' for Italy will be: on 23 October S&P, on 30 October Dbrs, on 6 November Moody's and again on Fitch on 4 December.