Moscow expects from the top leaders of Ukraine confirmation or refutation of the words of the country's representative in the tripartite contact group regarding the Minsk agreements. Such a statement was made by Dmitry Kozak, deputy head of the presidential administration, commenting on the statements of Alexei Reznikov, who is also the deputy prime minister of Ukraine.
“If in the near future this statement will be confirmed or not already refuted by the Prime Minister or President of Ukraine, then this really means Ukraine’s withdrawal from the Minsk agreements, and therefore from the Minsk and“ Norman ”formats for negotiations to resolve the conflict in the Donbass. This also means that the president of Ukraine will have to disavow his signature six months ago under the final communique of the Paris summit on December 9, 2019, ”said Kozak.
According to him, in Reznikov’s statement you can see only one positive point - “Ukraine has heard a call to stop fooling the whole world.” He also noted that at present one of the parties to the conflict in the Donbass is refusing to comply with the law, which is the Minsk Agreement.
"Now one of the parties to the conflict declares:" I do not want and will not be guided by this law. " So there is no law anymore. It happens. World historical practice knows many such facts. But the same practice shows that it takes years to develop new rules. In Kiev, they cannot but realize this. This can only be evidence that all statements about the desire for peace and the resolution of the conflict were largely declarative, ”the deputy head of the presidential administration explained.
Earlier, Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine - MinisterRegarding the reintegration of the temporarily occupied territories, Aleksey Reznikov called the Minsk Agreements largely irrelevant and called for their revision.
“I will quote Ms Merkel (the Chancellor of Germany. - RT ) about the Minsk Agreements , they are not carved in stone. Today they do not correspond to the realities in which Ukraine was, when those agreements were concluded as political and legal agreements. Because today the terms stipulated in the Minsk Agreements - 2014-2015 - have already expired, and these Minsk Agreements have not been implemented, ”he said on the television channel Ukraine 24.
Reznikov also said that the Minsk Agreement "in any case, must be reviewed." According to him, Ukraine cannot hold elections in the Donbass, since it does not control a section of the border.
“In addition, things (in agreements. - RT ) indicate such things as first elections and then taking control of the border, which is impossible, since the Copenhagen standards by which we must conduct elections there, so that the OSCE determines that they correspond Ukrainian standards and Copenhagen standards, provide for the absence of foreign troops there, illegal armed groups, and there can be no lack of control by Ukraine over this territory, ”he said.
It is not surprising for the experts that the new statements “on the rewriting of Minsk” come from Aleksey Reznikov, because he “has already established himself as an unreliable person in terms of fulfilling the agreements, interpreting the Minsk agreements and the whole peace process in the Donbass”.
“Now he is faced with the task of effectively leveling out any attempts to resolve the intra-Ukrainian conflict. He does not support the completion of the confrontation between the LPR and the DPR with Kiev, and does everything in order to slow down the peace settlement between the parties, ”said Denis Denisov, director of the Institute for Peace Initiatives and Conflictology, in an interview with RT.
In his opinion, Reznikov intentionally does not mention the Steinmeier formula, which Zelensky signed and which precisely “regulates the implementation of the Minsk agreements on the basis of the current agenda.”
- Independence Square in Kiev
- RIA News
“Why should he mention Steinmeier’s formula if this person and Ukraine as a whole are not inclined to resolve the conflict. In the opposite case, there would be no statements on the revision of the Minsk agreements in principle, since each such attack on the side of the document delays the settlement of the intra-Ukrainian conflict, ”the analyst emphasized.
"Strengthen your position"
It is worth noting that this is not the first time that Ukraine has proposed revising the Minsk agreements. In particular, such an initiative was made by the President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky on December 12, 2019 on the air of the 1 + 1 TV channel. According to him, the changes should concern the clause on transferring the border of Donbass with Russia under the control of Kiev.
Then this statement of the Ukrainian leader was commented by Russian President Vladimir Putin, stressing that "there is nothing but the Minsk agreements."
“Of course, I was very alarmed by the statement of President Zelensky after he left Paris about what could have been revised. If the revision of the Minsk Agreements begins, the whole situation may even come to a standstill, complete. Because the key to these Minsk agreements is the law on the special status of Donbass, which should be implemented in the Ukrainian basic law, in the Constitution, ”Putin said.
However, even after this, the Ukrainian side continued to advocate for a change in the Minsk agreements.
As the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov noted in June, Kiev’s statements about the optional implementation of the relevant agreements are “from the evil one or from ignorance of the subject”.
Denis Denisov emphasizes that Ukraine has repeatedly tried to rewrite the Minsk agreements, "in order to strengthen their positions to one degree or another."
“At the same time, the Minsk agreements themselves are an extremely compromise document, on the basis of which a settlement is possible. Based on this, any attempts to radically change these agreements, as Kiev proposes, will have an extremely negative impact on the conflict settlement process, ”the expert said.
Sabotage of Minsk
In addition, according to Denis Denisov, Ukraineadvocates the revision of the Minsk agreements, including in order to "mask the failure to fulfill its obligations."
Recall that in mid-May Kiev refused to fix the special status of the territories of Donbass in the Constitution. It was also noted that Kiev favors the holding of elections in the DPR and LPR "only after Ukraine gained control of the border." The Ukrainian side also made a similar statement in April. At the same time, Kiev proposed to create, within the framework of the tripartite contact group (TAG), the structure "to develop a mechanism for restoring Ukraine’s control over the state border section."
- President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky
- © Sergey Dolzhenko / Pool via REUTERS
Moreover, in early March, in an interview with the British publication The Guardian, Vladimir Zelensky did not exclude Kiev from withdrawing from international negotiations to resolve the situation in the Donbass until December, unless there is some progress on this issue. According to the Ukrainian leader, he does not intend to spend his entire five-year presidential term on working with Minsk.
Recall that the Minsk agreement provides for a law on the special status of Donbass. To implement this clause of the agreements, on October 1, 2019, after almost four years of discussion, the contact group for the Donbass approved a single version of the so-called Steinmeier formula - a mechanism for introducing special status for the territories of the LPR and the DPR as part of the Ukrainian state, as well as the separation of forces and assets near Petrovskoe settlements and Golden.
According to Steinmeier’s formula, Kiev must first ensure the operation of the temporary special status of these areas of Donbass, then local elections must be held there according to Ukrainian law. If the voting results are recognized by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), then special status will be introduced on an ongoing basis, and Ukraine will gain control over the border with Russia.
As Oleg Nemensky, a leading researcher at RISI, emphasized in an interview with RT, Ukraine does not speak directly about the reluctance to implement the Minsk agreements, but simply sabotages them, because "sanctions against Russia are tied to them."
“It is clear that these agreements have not been implemented, are not being implemented and will not be fully implemented. However, the actual withdrawal of Ukraine from Minsk will mean Russia's assistance in lifting sanctions. And this is politically impractical for Kiev, ”said the expert.
“Moving away from Ukraine”
At the same time, analysts believe that the intra-Ukrainian conflict is now "in a phase of stagnation." Despite the fact that negotiations of advisers to the leaders of the “Norman Four” took place in Berlin on July 3, there is no talk of a “breakthrough” in the negotiations on the Donbass, experts say. This was stated by the deputy head of the presidential administration Dmitry Kozak.
“Today, it was not possible to get a clear, distinct answer from Ukraine when this document was prepared, amendments to the Constitution regarding decentralization ... no one has ever seen this decentralization - neither Ukrainian citizens, nor residents of Donbass. And what we are talking about, we don’t understand, nobody understands, ”Kozak said following the results of the first day of negotiations.
- Deputy head of the presidential administration Dmitry Kozak
- © Dmitry Astakhov / RIA News
Later, the deputy head of the presidential administration stressed that "useless, futile long negotiations only increase the gap between the residents of Donbass and the Ukrainian authorities." He stated this in an interview with TASS, which was published on July 9.
“Obviously, over time, it will be more difficult to reduce it,” he said.
At the same time, Kozak called on the Ukrainian side to stop "fooling the whole world about its continued commitment to the Minsk agreements."
“We have repeatedly called on our colleagues to take an open position: if you do not consider it necessary or are not able to fulfill any obligations for one reason or another, declare it directly,” he emphasized.
As Denisov predicts, the situation in the Donbass due to Ukraine’s unwillingness to compromise will "be in a state of smoldering conflict."
“At the same time, some security issues can be resolved before the end of this year. They are urgent for residents of Donbass, who have been suffering from aggression of the Ukrainian military for more than a year, ”the analyst concluded.