At a time when the United States is subject to the "Corona" pandemic and unemployment on a large scale, in addition to the massive demonstrations in response to the horrific killing of the black young man, George Floyd, Minnesota, on May 25, the American President, Donald Trump, finds himself reeling behind his rival Vice Former president, Joe Biden, during successive polls. This does not mean that Biden's victory in the November elections is guaranteed, and that Trump's performance will not improve in the polls, even if the American journalist, Bill Sher, from Politico newspaper says that history shows that Trump's chances of changing the current results of opinion polls are not good. .
"We are now at the beginning of July, and a lot can happen within four months, right?" Sher said in an article for the Real Clear Politics website. But I want to clarify the fact that in the history of US presidential election polls, no president in the White House has been able to be re-elected again and he faces a huge dilemma the size of Trump currently facing »but Cher has searched in US history for examples of presidential candidates who have had poor results In opinion polls, they eventually achieved victory, for example President Harry Truman in 1948, despite the consensus of the media that Thomas Dewey won, and the announcement of the "Chicago Daily Tribune" newspaper in its editorial on the third of November 1948, "Dewey defeated Truman", except In fact, it was Truman, not Thomas Dewey, who won the presidency in 1948.
Sher explains that, as Trump is now, Harry Truman's results were 11 percentage points less than his opponent Dewey, in a poll in July 1948, according to Gallup polls, but for many Americans Truman was a president by chance, he did not reach the position By the ballot box, but rather came to succeed President Franklin D. Roosevelt, who died at that time, and Truman managed through a campaign by train, which extended to 31 thousand miles, to improve his image, to advance his opponent Dewey by three million voters.
There is another presidential candidate who changed matters, George Bush Sr. in 1988. Sher said: “President Bush Sr. was a loser against his Democratic opponent, Michael Dukakis, at the end of the spring and the beginning of the summer of 1988, and he was retreating by 17 points, according to Gallup polls, after The Democratic National Convention, ”Sher adds, recalling,“ But most Americans did not know Dukakis, the governor of Massachusetts, well, and that was why Bush was able to portray him through a series of offensive ads to Dukakis, but the latter did not care much about her, because he relied on "He outperformed opinion polls, and Bush managed to advance Dukakis by eight points by September, and he defeated him in November."
Sher indicated that when Republican strategist Karl Rove appeared on Fox News on June 26, Presidents Truman and Bush Sr. mentioned examples of the possibility of overcoming polls numbers, but Cher says that both campaigns by Trump and Bush Father, you cannot be a model that Trump can emulate, since Trump is not a president by chance like Truman, whom the public wanted to get to know more. ”And Sher adds:“ The Trump campaign is trying to imitate Bush’s brutal Bush campaign in 1988, albeit with less intelligence, Campaign manager Brad Parskall bragged last May that he would eliminate Joe Biden, but Biden, who has stayed in Congress six times in a row, is a figure well known to the public more than Dukakis, and therefore there will be no surprises, as the primary element in The electoral attack does not exist at all.
Alex Henderson is an American writer
Historical work
"Although no elected president, 10 points behind his rival in the poll, was able to be re-elected a second time, it does not mean that Trump cannot win the elections," says American journalist Bill Cher, in his article. That if Trump does not overcome the current poll numbers, and he can be re-elected again in November, then this will be a historic act, adding: «We do not know the future but we know the present, as there are large numbers of people who are not satisfied with Trump’s presidency, and you want He changed it, and history tells us that his situation is not appropriate for his re-election, but if Trump wants to win, he must make history. ”
History shows that Trump's chances of changing the current poll results are not good.