Writer Bobby Ghosh said that the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman must quickly fix his mistakes in order to be able to continue ruling, as his country is going through a suffocating crisis with the outbreak of an "oil war" and the Corona pandemic, and it may be difficult for his allies to continue his support with the growing popular anger against his economic vision.
In a report published by the American "Bloomberg" website, the author, Bobby Ghosh, began by saying, "By putting his hand on his heart - a common movement between the princes of the Middle East and the general public - the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman may admit that he bears the same responsibility for the state of the Saudi economy, As far as the Corona Virus pandemic endures.
The writer added that his "oil war" that erupted at an inappropriate time against Russia and the Corona crisis are the two that left the kingdom facing the sharpest contraction in a generation, which is likely to force the crown prince to make deep cuts in his "Vision 2030" plan.
Ghosh said that the goal of the basic plan for economic and social reforms is to keep Saudi Arabia away from its dependence on hydrocarbons and create more opportunities for private institutions. But four years later, more than 60% of government revenues are still from oil.
The writer mentioned that Mohammed bin Salman ordered austerity measures, but it would exacerbate the economic slowdown by reducing consumption and obstructing the private sector, which would exacerbate the feelings of frustration among the unemployed who were promised opportunities to prosper thanks to the prince's vision.
The harsh realities facing the kingdom's de facto ruler come at the top of the list of problems that have created difficulties for him since he tasted power. While bin Salman is preparing to guide his country during the post-epidemic period, his chances of ruling depend on his ability to eliminate the damage he created himself, according to the author.
Ghosh added that despite his young age and stubbornness, bin Salman showed a limited ability to change his ways, but he must realize that he can no longer take the relationship with America as for granted, as a tough call from President Donald Trump in April forced him to end a war Oil, as it has to prepare for the possibility of a change of White House ruler, as it appears that Democratic candidate Joseph Biden tends to mend ties with Iran.
Regional Relations
The writer pointed out that the natural consequence of losing unlimited American support is the need for friends next door, but relations with Yemen and Qatar are hostile, and with Oman and Iraq tepid, and bin Salman should fix them.
"It is easy to lift the blockade imposed on Qatar, which is perhaps the biggest fatal mistake in the foreign policy of the crown prince," he added, adding that he must "resist the main driver of this hostility, which is Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed."
The writer also touched on the story of the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, which Bin Salman did not get rid of its consequences, and the European countries' condemnation of the efforts of the Saudi Wealth Fund to buy the English football club Newcastle United, which proves that the efforts of the Crown Prince to polish his image are counter-productive.
At the G20 summit in Osaka last summer, Trump rescued his friend Bin Salman by praising his "amazing" leadership, and ignoring calls to hold him accountable for the murder of Khashoggi. But this relationship later deteriorated, and it is hard for Trump to save him again from embarrassment.
Arresting activists, and
if the Prince can tame the media and intimidate critics at the local level, he faces a new challenge in how to maintain his popularity while imposing austerity measures, while leaders are still living a luxury life, and they may ask why the sovereign wealth fund is trying to buy an English club instead of saving The Saudi private sector ?!
Also the opposition is increasingly suffocated, the imprisonment of social activists and the restriction of media platforms, while European legislators are pressuring Saudi Arabia to release Prince Salman bin Abdulaziz, in parallel with diplomatic efforts to release the relatives of the former intelligence official Saad al-Jabri.
If bin Salman suspended diplomatic and trade relations with Canada because of expressing concern about the detention of Saudi activists, he would not be able to impose restrictions on Europe, according to the author.
The writer noted that popular discontent at the local level will not lead to a revolution, as Muhammad bin Salman's control of the state security apparatus makes his position truly impenetrable. But as the austerity regime continues, it will be difficult for him to maintain his image as a popular prince at home. The same applies to his image as a reformer abroad.
Ghosh concluded by saying that the crown prince cannot escape from the limelight for a long time, and the Saudis who are trying to adapt to the post-pandemic world will look to their prince to guide them during the most difficult period in their country's modern history, and the world will direct its sights on it to see if it can save itself.