Confindustria: in May production -33% on year, "there is the risk of the explosion of a social emergency"

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"Many entrepreneurs suffer from a lack of liquidity due to the regulatory blockade of activities in recent months. For the moment many are forced to surf on sight, also due to a scenario of extreme uncertainty on the Italian and international economy. In the absence of adequate interventions in support of the recovery of the production system, within a few months there is the risk of an explosion of a real social emergency which will make the road towards the exit from the current economic crisis even more difficult ". This was stated by the Confindustria Study Center.

Industrial production in May -33.8% over
the year With the reopening in May, Italian industrial production recovered, but remained far from the levels of a year ago and is expected to decrease by about a quarter compared to the first in the second quarter. This is what the Confindustria Study Center indicates, noting that in May production decreased by 33.8% compared to a year earlier, after the -44.3% recorded in April always in the annual comparison. In cyclical terms, or compared to the previous month, there was a rebound of 31.4% in May, after a drop of 24.2% in April. The variation acquired in industrial production in the second quarter is -27.7% on the first quarter, when it had decreased by 8.4% on the fourth quarter of 2019.

If even in June "the slow recovery of demand" proceeded, in the second quarter average there would still be "a reduction of more than 20% of the activity", in fact the CSC states. Regarding orders in volume they decreased by 51 , 6% per year in May (+ 12.3% on the previous month) and 29.6% in April (-43.7% on March). In the two months of survey, activity in the industry showed, in economic terms, a "very oscillating" dynamic, reports the Confindustria Study Center. The fall in production in April was followed by a "technical" rebound in May, explained by a base effect, due to the extremely low levels reached in the previous month. In April, in fact, the volumes of activity in the industry were about half of those recorded on average in the first two months of the year. With the reopening of all industrial enterprises at the beginning of May and almost all those of services during the same month, there was "a marginal increase" in demand; in conditions of low activity levels, even minimal progress in volumes - the CSC points out - translate into significant percentage increases. The economic data for May, therefore, "is vitiated by this statistical effect and should not be interpreted as a robust recovery. Quite the opposite. The drop of about a third of industrial production compared to May 2019 offers the right key to reading and showing how far the conditions in which the Italian industry operates are still far from a "normal" situation ".